The latest low-pressure area, the third this month, has intensified into ‘well-marked’ and is parked this (Wednesday) morning over South Bangladesh and adjoining North Bay of Bengal and West Bengal, and expected to move fully into Indian territory across West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar.

This movement of the well-marked ‘low’ over the next two days, along the monsoon trough over the plains of North and East India, will bring even more widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very falls over East, North-West India and parts of the west coast and adjoining interior peninsula.

Intense rain clouds

Satellite pictures this (Wednesday) morning showed intense rain clouds massing up over the plains of North-West India, around Delhi and neighbourhood, including Jhansi and Agra to the south and Ambala in the north, and filtering into the hills in adjoining Uttarakhand, vulnerable to landslides and avalanches.

Rain deficit down to 1% under monsoon onslaught

Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and North-West Uttar Pradesh today (Wednesday), India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar until Friday and over East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh until Saturday.

Extremely heavy rain

Isolated extremely heavy falls are also likely over the plains of West Bengal until tomorrow (Thursday); over Jharkhand on Thursday; over Chhattisgarh on Friday; and over East Madhya Pradesh on Saturday. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over Konkan, Goa, ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra until Friday, and increase to isolated heavy to very heavy falls.

Rain intensity may relent, but no respite for West Coast

Private forecaster Skymet Weather said that the current low-pressure area is the fourth of this season overall in the Indian waters and is statistically considered an average number halfway through, as July — normally the rainiest of the four monsoon months — prepares to sign off.

Third ‘low’ of July, says Skymet

This ‘low’ may loiter around the North Bay and neighbouring West Bengal and Bangladesh for the next two days, with only a marginal shift towards land. By tomorrow (Thursday), it may pass over the fringes of West Bengal, North Odisha, South Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

It may make a customary track along the Indo-Gangetic plains and move along the monsoon trough. The slow-moving system may spend four to five days traversing the plains of West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and East Rajasthan. Unlike predecessors, it may spare Telangana, Maharashtra (including Konkan) and Gujarat from intense weather.

Over the next two days, Skymet predicted heavy rainfall over West Bengal, North Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar. Thereafter, the heavy rainfall belt will shift to North Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Delhi may also end July on a rainy note, with widespread heavy showers on the last two days.

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