The sowing of Kharif crops has taken place over 76.43 million hectares (mh), up 8.7 per cent from 70.34 mh recorded during the corresponding period last year. Around 73 per cent of sowing for the season has been completed at the halfway mark.

The latest estimates released by the Agriculture Ministry here on Friday show Kharif acreage having risen 10.2 per cent over the previous week, after recovery of the South-West monsoon over the second half of July. Increased coverage has been registered for pulses, coarse cereals and oilseeds.

Rain deficit

Between June 1 and July 31, India received 429.8 mm of rainfall, around 5 per cent below normal. According to the India Meteorology Department (IMD), there was 16 per cent surplus rainfall through June but a dry spell resulted in 33 per cent deficient rain through the first half of July. “Overall, we estimate 17 per cent deficient rain in July, higher than our forecast of 8 per cent. The El Nino strengthened and there was an unfavourable switch in the Madden-Julian Oscillation,” said DS Pai, Director, Long Range Forecast, IMD.

IMD data showed 22 out of 36 sub-divisions having received normal or excess rainfall till Friday. Regions hardest hit with lower precipitation include parts of the peninsula such as North interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala, Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Central regions such as Marathwada, Central Maharashtra and Vidharbha.

August showers

Pai said rainfall for August was forecast at 90 per cent of the long period average (LPA). “We expect rain through the first week or 10 days of the month but there is likely to be a dry spell by mid-August,” he added.

IMD’s prediction is in line with private agency Skymet’s forecast, which revised their monsoon forecast to 98 per cent of the LPA from 102 per cent earlier, factoring in a stronger El Nino.

“The major quantum of rainfall in August is likely to be received during the first fortnight. We expect a break between August 15-20, a revival between the August 20 and 24, and another small circulation at the end of the month,” said Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet.

He said peninsular India continued to be at risk while the Konkan region and Kerala is not likely to see a revival. The Indian Ocean Dipole (irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperatures) is at present neutral but was “on track” to becoming positive in August, a favourable development for the monsoon.

“Sowing is progressing well, but August will be crucial since 25 per cent of sowing remains and the flowering stage is in mid-August. With good rains so far, there was timely sowing, and the expectation is that there will be good production for the Kharif season. At present, it is going parallel to the 2013-14 season,” said JS Sandhu, Agriculture Commissioner and Deputy Director-General, Crop Science, Indian Council of Agricultural Research.

Crop-wise data

Pulses like arhar (tur), urad and moong, have been sown over 8.24 mh, up nearly 21 per cent over the 6.82 mh covered at the same time last season. Acreage of moong and urad, in particular, has registered increases of 32.2 per cent and 29.5 per cent, respectively.

Acreage of oilseeds such as groundnut, soyabean, sesamum and castor are up 9.5 per cent at 14.9 mh (13.6 mh). Soyabean planting is up 11.17 per cent while that of groundnut is up 10.5 per cent.

Coarse cereals have been sown over larger tracts in central India where rainfall has been lower, and have covered 14.9 mh compared to 12.6 mh at the same time last year. Jowar acreage is higher by 26.12 per cent and bajra by 28.8 per cent.

Rice, the main Kharif foodgrain, has been covered on 22.8 mh – up 6.1 per cent from 21.5 mh earlier. Sugarcane acreage is also up marginally by 2 per cent.

Area under cotton has, however, fallen around 3 per cent to 10.19 mh from 10.5 mh during the corresponding period in 2014-15, while jute and mesta’s acreage stands at 0.78 mh, lower than the 0.81 mh earlier.

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