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Late-in-the-season weather activity has thrown up a deep depression — just a gust away from being called a cyclone — over the South-West Arabian Sea and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean, close to the East African coast.
The deep depression has moved North-North-West and lay centred about 710 km south-southeast of the Socotra Islands (Yemen) and 930 km South-East of Bosaso (Somalia) this (Tuesday) morning. It is expected to intensify into a cyclone by tomorrow (Wednesday). The system may initially move North-North-West before shifting West-North-West towards the Somalia coast during the next four days.
A compatriot low-pressure area closer home over Lakshadweep and the adjoining South-East Arabian Sea now lies as a well-marked (intensified) low-pressure area over the South-East Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of the East-Central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area.
It is likely to concentrate into a depression by Wednesday and cause widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall over the Lakshadweep area during this period before reducing significantly thereafter. This could likely represent the last major brush of the Bay of Bengal-Arabian Sea with the North-East monsoon, 2019, after powerful cyclones Kyarr, Maha and Bulbul.
Bay under watch
International models have been looking at the possibility of fresh easterly wave activity in the Bay of Bengal mainly around Sri Lanka and South Tamil Nadu later this week. This would be in the form of an extended activity of the dangerous category-4 typhoon Kammuri that hit the Philippines earlier this morning and may enter the South China Sea to the West.
The Bay of Bengal lies only further West, where a pulse from the typhoon is being likely directed to, in the form of the easterly wave. It remains to be seen whether this can bring another organised weather system (low-pressure area or depression) into play in the Bay with implications for the final leg of the North-East monsoon.
Very rough sea conditions (wave heights of 13 ft) prevailed over the South-West Arabian Sea on Tuesday and may become very rough to high (13-20 ft) over and along and off the Somalia coast from the evening. They will continue to remain rough to very rough over the Lakshadweep area, East-Central and adjoining South-East Arabian Sea and along and off the Kerala-Karnataka-Maharashtra-Goa coasts.
Caution for fishermen
Fishermen are advised not to venture out into the South-West Arabian Sea and along and off the Somalia coast; the South-East Arabian sea and adjoining areas of the East-Central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep; and along and off the Kerala-Karnataka-Goa-Maharashtra coasts.
Sea conditions will evolve further on Wednesday with gale winds reaching speeds of 70-80 km/hr gusting to 90 km/hr being forecast over the South-West Arabian Sea and along and off the Somalia coast. Squally weather (wind speeds of 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr) may prevail over the Lakshadweep area and adjoining South-East and East-Central Arabian Sea and along and off the Karnataka and Maharashtra-Goa coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture out to sea in these areas. Rough to very rough conditions are forecast for the East-Central Arabian sea and along and off the Karnataka-Maharashtra-Goa coast.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the South-West Arabian sea and along and off the Somalia coast; the South-East Arabian Sea; and adjoining areas of East-Central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area and along and off the Kerala-Karnataka-Maharashtra-Goa coasts.
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