‘Low’ forms in Bay, on course to become a depression

Heavy rains have lashed parts of over Marathawada, Telangana and North Interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning as a low-pressure area formed over the East-Central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Myanmar coast.

The India Met Department (IMD) expects it to intensify into a depression by Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology too has put out a watch for a depression in the Bay. It is likely that the South-West monsoon would start withdrawing from Central Myanmar between September 22 to 27. But the depression aiming to track into its hinterland would delay the withdrawal process over India.

Renewed rain spell

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that recent changes evident in broadscale wind patterns across the tropical oceans suggest the gradual transition of the monsoon trough from the northern to southern hemisphere has begun.

Meanwhile, the ‘low’ is set to move west-northwest towards the North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha coasts during its intensification phase on Wednesday/Thursday, and cross the coast. This will bring a fresh spell of rain across Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh and enhanced rainfall activity over Central and adjoining Peninsular India and North-West India from Friday to Tuesday.

The rains should start scaling up from Thursday in line with the intensification of the system with Odisha and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh likely to see heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy falls.

Rains for South?

The fresh spell of organised rains is coming at a time when the all-India rain deficit has slipped into double digits (-10 per cent as on Tuesday) with more Met sub-divisions falling into the ‘red’ category. The worst performer is Lakshadweep (-47 per cent), which, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, may make some gains during the emerging rain spell.

The European Centre has also said that the South Peninsula could look at the prospect of widespread rain from September 25, after the depression gets blown over North-West India.

An IMD outlook for Wednesday has said that heavy rain would break out over the rain-deficit North-Eastern States, Coastal Odisha and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning are expected over Odisha.

‘Rough’ to ‘very rough’ (wave heights of 8-20 ft) may rule the South, Central and North Bay; the Andaman Sea, and along and off the Andhra Pradesh, Bengal and Odisha coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea in these areas.

Thursday would see heavy to very heavy rain with extremely heavy falls lash Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh; heavy to very heavy rain over Telangana; and heavy rain over the North-East, Bengal, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.

‘Rough’ to ‘very rough’ sea conditions are indicated for Central and North Bay as well as along and off Andhra Pradesh, Bengal and Odisha coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

An extended warning valid for September 23 to 25 said that widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over North-West India; scattered to fairly widespread over East and North-East India and the northern plains.

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