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The weakening of cyclone ‘Ashobaa’ off Oman on Friday saw the monsoon make fresh surge along the West Coast to enter Mumbai and parts of Madhya Maharashtra.
The onset over Mumbai is delayed by two days but most weather models indicated sustained rainfall for the west coast, including the metropolis, next week.
A helpful offshore trough will likely come into place by then.
An elongated area of low pressure, the trough will receive the flows before directing them into the Western Ghats.
Scaling upHere they are lifted up, get cooled, and are precipitated as heavy rain.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has predicted formation of a low-pressure area off the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast by Thursday.
In tandem with the offshore trough along the west coast, this will help drive the monsoon to peak form across peninsular India and parts of adjoining central India.
A ‘low’ forming in the Bay of Bengal is the best bit of news since it holds up the Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon ensuring rain for the farming heartland of the country.
Less over coastStatistics until June 10 suggested that in areas covered already by the monsoon, rain was deficient along the west coast, excess over Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh, and normal in rest of peninsula.
The European centre said that entire Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and north interior Karnataka and parts of northern Tamil Nadu may get moderate to heavy rainfall next week.
According to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the monsoon is likely to enter central India by June 25.
It will cover almost the entire country except the north-west India by June-end.
The US Climate Prediction Centre too agrees with this outlook.
It has forecast heavy rain for the west coast two weeks starting Friday and going until June 25.
Rain for eastMumbai, western parts of Maharashtra, west Madhya Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telangana, south interior Karnataka and Kerala are expected to come under a wet spell during the first week (June 12-18).
The week that follows will see rain sustaining at many of these areas and also extending over central and adjoining east India.
India Met Department has said that Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha would witness rain/thundershowers by end of next week.
Thundershowers are also forecast for isolated places in plains of northwest India and adjoining hills.
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