The monsoon seemed to be in good shape a day after its onset, with the India Met Department (IMD) confirming that “active monsoon conditions” prevailed over the South Peninsula and the North-Eastern States.

During the 24 hours ended Wednesday morning, most of the heavy rainfall reported in Kerala was from the central and northern districts, with westerly winds towards the south straying a bit. Rain occurred at most places in the Lakshadweep.

The rains will now enter Coastal and Interior Karnataka, parts of Tamil Nadu and the North-Eastern States over the next two to three days.

Rainy outlook

Heavy rainfall was recorded (in cm) at: Minicoy, Irikkur and Vaikom (both in Kerala) 7 each; CIAL Kochi, Kochi airport and Piravom (all in Ernakulam) 6 each; Vadakara, Aluva, and Neyyattinkara 5 each.

The Thiruvananthapuram Met Office said rain/shower is most likely to occur at most places in Kerala and the Lakshadweep for the next five days. A heavy rainfall warning is in effect for Kerala from Friday to Sunday.

Strong winds from a westerly direction with speed occasionally reaching 45-to-55 km/hr are likely along and off the Kerala coast and over the Lakshadweep until Thursday afternoon.

Cyclone remnant

Meanwhile, a remnant of the severe cyclone ‘Mora’ that hit the Bangladesh coast on Tuesday drifted into the North-Eastern States as a depression, and weakened to become a conventional low-pressure area.

Despite its weakened status, it will be able to lift moisture from the Bay of Bengal and continue to bring rain into the North-Eastern States and adjoining East India for the next few days as well.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has held on to its watch for a low-pressure area brewing in the Bay of Bengal by June 9, which could rev up the monsoon.

On Wednesday, it said the strength of the flows would likely generate another ‘low’ in the Arabian Sea.

The presence of weather systems on either side of the peninsula is a potential setting for hyper monsoon activity, but these are still early days.

An extended-range outlook prepared on May 24 by the Indian Institue of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, said that until June 7, the monsoon would be active over the West Coast and West Maharashtra and Karnataka.

In the East, the rains will check into Bengal, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh. From June 8 to 14, the monsoon will strenghen over the West Coast (driven by the ‘low’ in the Bay), and spread out thin over the rest of the peninsula. Tamil Nadu may stay dry.

Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh are expected to receive rain during this phase as will the North-Eastern States, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Delhi and Jammu & Kashmir.