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The progress of the monsoon continues to be stuck along the Kochi-Tondi-Agartala-Williamnagar-Kokrajhar axis linking the west coast and North-East India but it is a matter of a few days before it resumes its northward journey.
Even in Kerala, the rains are yet to reach the northern districts beyond Ernakulam and Thrissur, according to trends in recorded rainfall till Monday.
Rain forecastNormally by June 5, they should have reached Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and parts of Telangana.
The IMD said on Monday that most of these areas would start getting rains from Wednesday. They include Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, parts of North Interior Karnataka, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
KJ Ramesh, Director-General of IMD, had told BusinessLine in an interview last week that the monsoon was expected to reach Goa by June 8 (Thursday). The normal date of its arrival in Mumbai to proceed further north is June 10.
Towards the East, the hills of Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura should witness heavy showers. The IMD assesses that the rains will start consolidating on the west coast and the North-East from Friday.
Bay ‘low’ awaitedThis would have been made possible by a low-pressure area forming off the coast of Andhra Pradesh, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The monsoon flows are forecast to peak to a new strength alongside, causing heavy to very heavy rainfall over the west coast (coastal Karnataka and upwards) and East India.
According to the US Climate Prediction Centre, areas likely coming under the excess rainfall from June 11 to 17 are coastal Karnataka, Goa, Konkan, Mumbai and South Gujarat on the West Coast.
Most of East India, including coastal Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, South Bihar, are also expected to receive excess rain during this period.
The whole of Peninsular India, except South Tamil Nadu and South Kerala, may receive normal showers during this period, says the US Centre.
According to the European Centre, scaling up of the monsoon in this manner from this week would be masterminded by fresh activity in the Bay of Bengal, driven by the ‘low.’
The IMD says it will grow in intensity a day later, and pull in strong monsoon flows from the Arabian Sea across the peninsula bringing the landscape under rain cover.
The European Centre sees the ‘low’ crossing the coast and getting pushed into Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, even as the Bay of Bengal shapes up to host what looks like another ‘low’ after June 15.
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