Agri Business

'Low' in Arabian Sea to get 'more marked' by Sunday, drive heavy rain

Vinson Kurian THIRUVANANTHAPURAM | Updated on October 18, 2019 Published on October 18, 2019

India Met Department (IMD) wind-field projections for Sunday indicates winds strengthening around the low-pressure area to the South-West of Konkan-Mumbai.

Widespread rain

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is likely to occur over the South Peninsula during the next four to five days (until October 23). Heavy to very heavy rainfalls at isolated places is also likely over Coastal Karnataka tomorrow (Saturday).

Meanwhile, the 24-hour ending Friday morning saw has already seen moderate to heavy rain (in cm) at  Nungambakkam-10; Coonoor-8; Kakinada and Kozhikode-7 each; Honavar and Kottayam-5 each; Cannur and Karipur-4 each; Kavali, Mangaluru and Palakkad-3 each.

On Friday, however, the trough from a cyclonic circulation over the 'low' that had run to Telangana on Thursday has become less marked, apparently with the 'low' finding traction on its own. Significant weather is being signalled by an itinerant western disturbance that has checked in from East Afghanistan and lies over North Pakistan with implications across the international border for India.

The western disturbance as a cyclonic circulation was observed on the wind-profile map with a strong barrage (in blue shades) of westerly to south-westerly winds to the South of the system. 

IMD Website


Western disturbance

The western disturbance has send in advance an induced cyclonic circulation over West Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan, which has started impacting parts of North-West India already.

The western disturbance can induce a circulation to form when it is endowed with the 'depth' and intensity to dig into the North Arabian Sea and mop up moisture which is transported into North-West India. 

A satellite image taken from Skymet Weather


Giving it company is another circulation over East-Central Madhya Pradesh. Thunderstorms accompanied with hail and lightning is likely North-West India to East India, in line with the track of the western disturbance.

At the receiving end are Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, TUttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, plains of Bengal and Odisha.

The westerly to north-westerly winds associated with the circulation helps push the moisture to the East in this manner; by the same taken, these winds could have a say on where 'low' in the Arabian Sea could head.

The IMD sees the 'low' lingering over East-Central Arabian Sea for sometime and weaken; but only to be replaced by another one from the Bay of Bengal travelling in across interior peninsula.

An IMD forecast for Friday said heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Coastal Karnataka while it will be heavy over Konkan, Goa, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Coastal Andhra and Interior Karnataka.

An extended outlook from October 23 to 25 said scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over South India. Isolated rainfall is forecast for the hills of North-West India and East India.

Published on October 18, 2019
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