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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has hinted at a reduction in rain intensity along a saturated West Coast including Konkan & Goa and adjoining Interior Maharashtra till Monday (tomorrow) though fairly widespread rain with isolated heavy falls is likely over the West Coast for next five days.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated very heavy falls may continue over Gujarat till today (Sunday) and relent thereafter. Fairly widespread rain, isolated heavy to very heavy falls may persist over East Rajasthan till Monday while isolated extremely heavy falls is predicted today.
Rain belt over North-West
Rains may increase over North-West India from today. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls may break out over Uttarakhand until Wednesday, over Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh during from Monday to Wednesday.
A similar outlook is valid for Punjab and East Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated extremely heavy falls may lash Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand these two days. Meanwhile, over East and Central India, the respite from the heavy rains may last only for next two days, the IMD said.
Swing in fortunes
The swing in fortunes of the monsoon is directly linked to the longevity of the prevailing low-pressure area over North-East Madhya Pradesh as well as a successor brewing over the North Bay of Bengal in another three days. No two monsoon systems can survive at a time except on rare occasions.
One has necessarily to give, and the prevailing ‘low’ has blinked first even before the successor would take shape. The former would weaken further from tomorrow (Monday) even as the next ‘low’ forms over the Bay more as a perturbation of the busying typhoon (cyclone) activity in the West Pacific.
Busying West Pacific
Private forecaster Skymet Weather notes that the West Pacific and the Bay separated by Indochina are acting in sync now. It is normal for remnants of typhoons/cyclones from the West Pacific to travel in across Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand to enter the Bay and set up low-pressure areas.
Those heading elsewhere over mainland China/Taiwan or recurving to Korea/Japan rob the Bay of precious moisture and do not allow ‘low’s to take form in the Bay. The typhoon season in the West Pacific runs parallel with the India monsoon in India and is a part of the larger Asian monsoon.
Not a single depression yet
A ‘low’ formed in the Bay on July 22, second weather system of the month and third of the season. It became ‘well-marked’ the next day but did not intensify further. The successor brewing next may also become ‘well-marked’ at best. Nearly halfway into the season, there is no sign of the first depression.
Currently, typhoon ‘In-Fa’ is raging over the East China Sea and is already a Category-1 equivalent hurricane and is intensifying further. The typhoon is likely to spare Taiwan a direct hit and head for mainland China likely aiming to hit Hangzhou and Shanghai early tomorrow (Monday).
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