Karwar in coastal Karnataka recorded extremely heavy rain of 37 cm during the 24 hours ending on Thursday morning as a reviving monsoon pulverised parts of the West Coast. This was not enough to push its northern limit beyond an alignment draped across Mumbai, Ahilyanagar, Adilabad, Bhawanipatna, Puri, Sandhead Island and Balurghat reached two weeks ago.

Break in hiatus

The last 24 hours ending Thursday morning also saw heavy to very heavy rain at being reported from parts of Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and north interior Karnataka, while it was heavy rain over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Odisha, Telangana, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said monsoon may be able to break out of this hiatus in the next two days when it would enter more parts of Central and adjoining East India, including more parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. The rain deficit occasioned by the hiatus during June 1 to 11 logged in at -34 per cent for country as a whole as on Thursday.

All-India rain deficit

This is because surplus rain that fell during May 24 until June 1 after the monsoon made an early onset over Kerala does not go into the monsoon rainfall account. For this reason, post June-1, intervening hiatus wiped away significant rainfall surpluses recorded over South and Central India, which, as on date, have returned worst individual deficits of -41 per cent and -47 per cent.

A promising cyclonic circulation over west-central Bay of Bengal has shifted base to north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha by Thursday evening. A rain-friendly trough runs from this circulation to coastal Karnataka across Chhattisgarh, Marathawada and interior Karnataka pumping monsoon moisture into the region. 

Western disturbance

Meanwhile, an incoming western disturbance as a trough moved closer to North-West India as it lay anchored over the border region of south-east Iran and Pakistan. It is expected to progressively interact with monsoon easterlies and generate heavy rain over East, Central and adjoining North-West India into this weekend and the next week, according to IMD projections.

Land-based depression?

This will also produce a crucial low-pressure area over Odisha-West Bengal coast, which could even intensify into a depression over land in tandem with weakening of a competing depression named ‘Wutip’ currently active over north-west Pacific, at least 2,000 km away from and to the east of Kolkata, but falling within the footprint of the larger monsoon trough.

This land-based depression will produce a rain-head that will power its way through East, Central and North-West India next week with active monsoon conditions establishing over the northern parts of the country and gradually helping quell simmering heat.

Published on June 12, 2025