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Rainfall/snow over the western Himalayan region may ease off after April 5, but scattered thunderstorms will continue to stalk the plains of adjoining north-west India.
This is the extended outlook from India Met Department, which also sees thundershowers becoming fairly widespread over north-east India and isolated over south peninsular India.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts more or less agreed, saying the rain-driver western disturbances may largely spare northwest India from April 9/10.
In fact, a contra-indicative high-pressure area (in place of low-pressure western disturbances) may climb up the mountains and exert its influence over the region during that period.
This would clear the way for a likely heat wave from the Arabian Gulf to push through south and southwest Pakistan to enter Gujarat and adjoining southwest Rajasthan.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction says that weak western disturbances may still manage to roll into the hills, triggering thundershowers.
Dry phase soonGujarat, Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh and the Konkan region are expected to witness a dry phase during the week ending April 17. This will be matched by breaking out of fresh thundershowers along the southwest coast, adjoining Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
Thundershowers may spread out later to Marathawada, Telangana, Rayalaseema, north interior Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh, as per this forecast.
The occasionally wet weather is seen being sustained by periodic waves of rainfall across south Bay of Bengal, Sri Lanka and south Arabian Sea.
A persisting cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep and neighbourhood will amplify the thunderstorms and relay it to the Kerala coast through moisture feed. Coonoor in the Nilgiri hills of Tamil Nadu recorded very high rainfall of 13 cm as southeasterly winds from southwest Bay of Bengal fanned in moisture. Heavy rain/snow would continue to buffet Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the next couple of days.
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