Agri Business

September could be the wettest during this monsoon

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on January 20, 2018 Published on March 25, 2016

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Updated March forecasts put out by international weather agencies continue to suggest that the year 2016 monsoon could generate normal to surplus rainfall.

The four-month season starting from June is likely to carry a sting in the tail, latest seasonal outlooks from the South Korean and European agencies suggested.

Pre-monsoon trend

Busan, South Korea-based Asia-Pacific Climate Centre as well as the European Centre for Medium-Term Forecasts point to September turning out to be the rainiest of all.

The South Korean model has given outlooks for pre-monsoon April-May-June and monsoonal July-August-September, and individually for April, May, June, July and August.

Accordingly, the pre-monsoon season is likely to see normal to slightly above normal rain for most of North-West India and South Peninsula.

Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka, which have had a rather poor start to the spring-summer, could just see thundershowers break out over the region on a normal scale during April-May-June.

The slight shortfall will be shared on the West by Gujarat, west Maharashtra (including Konkan-Mumbai) and parts of north-interior and adjoining coastal Karnataka.

September bounty

Towards the East, a less than normal season would pan out over Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha.

In contrast, the core monsoon months of July-August-September could turn out to be a bumper season thanks largely due to the rain surge projected during September.

This three-month season is likely to generate a rather heavy rain surplus towards the West, especially over south Rajasthan, Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh, Konkan-Mumbai, coastal Karnataka-Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka, and most of Kerala.

Early projections support a scenario where rain systems led by low-pressure areas march their way in from the Bay of Bengal and interact with monsoonal flows from the Arabian Sea to dump the heaviest rain to the West of the country.

European forecast

The rest of the country also is expected to see normal to surplus rainfall to the sole exception of East and North-East India where the season may not be that productive. In fact, Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura could return a deficit.

Meanwhile, the European Centre projects normal rain/thundershowers for most of country during April-May-June though coastal Odisha may run into a deficit.

May-June-July is likely to return surplus rain over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and adjoining Maharashtra as well as over Rajasthan. Once again, parts of Odisha are projected to be in deficit.

A similar forecast is maintained for June-July-August though parts of south Kerala could witness a drier spell.

July-August-September may likely to deliver a surplus for the entire North-West and parts of Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and adjoining Maharashtra in the South.

Published on March 25, 2016
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