Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has forecast sugar production for 2012-13 season at 24 million tonne. This is about 8 per cent lower than 26 mt produced in 2011-12 season.

In its first advance estimate released on Monday, ISMA attributed the decline in production mainly to lower output in Maharashtra and Karnataka, where dry spells have hit the cane crop.  These two States contribute to around 45 per cent of the country’s sugar output.

Early in June, ISMA in its preliminary estimate had forecast an output of 25 million tonne for the year. The first advance estimate is lower than ISMA’s preliminary estimate and largely in line with the Food Ministry’s projections. The Food Ministry expects the 2012-13 sugar output to be between 23.5 and 24 million tonnes.

Based on field visits, feedback from its members and satellite imagery of the standing crop, ISMA expects sugar output in Maharashtra to be at 65 lakh tonnes, down from its preliminary estimate of 76 lakh tonne. The State had produced 89.5 lakh tonnes in 2011-12 season.

This reduction in Maharastra’s output is mainly on account of lower cane availability for harvest as dry spells had hit the standing crop. The State saw some 3-3.5 million tonnes of cane being diverted to fodder since May this year. The cane area reported by the state stood at 9.04 lakh ha in August 12 as against 10.25 lakh ha in the previous season.

In Karnataka, ISMA estimates a 21 per cent decline in output at 30 lakh tonnes as against 38 lakh tonnes in the previous year. The cane are in the State has dropped by 2 per cent, but the sugar recovery will be hit as scanty rains has affected the crop.

However, Uttar Pradesh has registered a 10 per cent increase in area to 24.74 lakh ha from previous year. Sugar production is expected to be 13.27 per cent higher at 79 lakh tonnes on good rains helping yields and recovery. UP produced 69.74 lakh tonnes of sweetener last year.

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