Summer of 2017 may be kinder to India, predicts Korean agency

It has been raining over parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala during the final few days of what has been an extremely rain-deficient North-East monsoon season this year. The sparse rain could sustain over the next couple of days into the year-end, according to consensus forecasts.

But what is it that the country as a whole can expect to see into the New Year?

The prospects are not too bad, if an early outlook posted by the Busan, South Korea-based Asia-Pacific Climate Centre is any indication.

The Centre is of the view that while January-February-March might not yield significant gains, April-May-June may throw up a surprise on the upside, especially for the southern part of the Peninsula.

It goes on to predict a heavy build-up of rains over the South-East Arabian Sea (off Kerala) in May and the Lakshadweep Islands being at the receiving end.

This would make for the most desirable pattern for onset of the South-West monsoon in 2017, with forecasts indicating heavy rain on the entire West Coast in June, the first month of the monsoon season.

Excess rains are also indicated for Central India, most parts of the Peninsula and even parts of West Bengal, which provides for a smooth onset phase of the monsoon.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has also made an almost similar assessment with respect to the onset phase of the monsoon.

These may be early days yet to make a convincing forecast about what might happen five to six months hence but there is near-unanimity judging from the outlook from other centres.

The onset phase would have to contend with the unpredictable — a tropical cyclone developing in either the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal, which could knock down its very moorings.

Meanwhile, the Busan Centre has come out with month-wise forecasts for the country right from January to June 2017.

January may deliver normal or just-below-normal rain for most of the country except Punjab, Uttarakhand, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, the hills of Bengal and the North-East, where it will be dry.

In February too, normal rain is forecast for the country except in Odisha, Bihar, Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and parts of the North-East where it will be dry.

March would likely see the dry patch being confined to Punjab, Uttarakhand and parts of the North-East.

The outlook will drastically change for April and May.

In April, excess rains are favoured for Lakshadweep as well as coastal Kerala. Slightly favourable climes are indicated for East and Central India while it will be slightly negative for parts of North-West India.

May is likely to see the skies come down heavy yet again over Lakshadweep and Kerala. Excess rains are also forecast for part of the North-East and south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The build-up to monsoon 2017 becomes complete in June when heavy rains are indicated for the West Coast, East and Central India and most of Peninsular India.

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