India’s wheat crop is expected to be much lower than 93.6 million tonnes forecast by the Agriculture Ministry in its third advanced estimates for 2012-13.

This is seen to be borne out by the current market arrivals and official procurement trends, which are significantly lower than their corresponding last year levels.

Trade sources expect the crop to be in the range of 80-84 million tonnes as market arrivals have thinned down across mandis in Northern States – mainly due to a lower crop and possibly due to farmers holding back their produce anticipating better prices.

“The wheat crop could be lower by about 15 to 20 per cent over last year’s 94.88 million tonnes,” said Adi Narayan Gupta, President of Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India. He attributed the decline in crop to the extended cold wave conditions and erratic rains in the key growing regions of Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during February and March.

The prolonged cold wave conditions triggered by Western disturbance had also affected the quality and the yields, Gupta said stating that the trade was finding it hard to purchase from mandis to cover their requirements as arrivals had shrunk.

Indu Sharma, Director at the Karnal-based Directorate of Wheat Research, said erratic rain during March had affected the output in parts of Haryana and Punjab. Water-logging in the wheat fields in parts of Haryana is expected to have shrunk output to around 124 lakh tonnes from last year’s 130 lakh tonnes.

However, Sharma expects that higher output in Madhya Pradesh and parts of Eastern UP and Bihar can possibly offset the losses in Punjab and Haryana, stating that production and procurement figures are awaited. “We expect there could be 3-5 per cent loss in total production, but the overall crop size may cross 90 million tonnes,” Sharma said.

Anil Monga, Chairman and Managing Director of Emmsons International Ltd, expects this year’s crop to be at 2011-12 levels of a little over 84 million tonnes. “There will be a 5-7 per cent decline in output this year as prolonged cold wave and sudden rise in temperatures during the grain formation have affected the yields,” he added.

Government agencies had seen a 15 per cent increase in procurement last year at 38.14 million tonnes and were hoping to purchase 44.12 million tonnes in the current season on expectation of a higher crop. However, till May 15, the procurement was down 18 per cent, while the arrivals were lower by 14 per cent over corresponding last year.

Vishwanath.kulkarni@thehindu.co.in

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