The global pulse trade is in a tailspin. After living in a comfort zone provided by India in the form of a large ready market for long years, pulse exporting nations — many of them cultivating the leguminous crop with India as the primary target market — are now forced to grapple with new ground realities.

To be sure, not only has India, the world’s largest producer, processor, importer and consumer, harvested a record pulse crop of 23 million tonnes (mt) in 2016-17 (sharply up from 16.4 mt in 2015-16), a repeat performance may be on the cards for 2017-18 as well. The first estimate of the kharif 2017-18 crop points to a harvest of 8.7 mt.

Although 7 per cent down from the record 9.4 mt of last kharif, it is still a large crop. The target for rabi is 14.1 mt. So, 2017-18 may well see in excess of 21 mt, subject to normal weather.

With such a scale of crop rebound, domestic availability has substantially expanded. But there are attendant problems, too. Farm-gate prices have collapsed to well below the minimum support price. The government’s interventions — be it procurement through parastatal agencies or imposing quantitative restrictions (QRs) on import of select pulses or opening of exports — have not been effective in stemming the price rot.

The huge inventory with government agencies and the private trade, together estimated at about 2.5 million tonnes, is seen as an additional burden on the market, which will take time to be worked off.

Given this scenario, import volumes — a record 6.6 mt in 2016-17 — are sure to take a beating in the current year. Far from growing — as seen in recent years — pulse import volumes are set to decline in fiscal year 2017-18.

Dip in imports In the first six months of the current fiscal year (April to September 2017), import arrivals were an estimated 3.5 mt. For the second half of the current fiscal year, advance commitments have been made for chickpea, yellow pea and lentils. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the contracted quantities are much lower than this time last year. Some estimates place the contracted volume at just 1.5 mt.

After QRs on tur/arhar, urad and moong, many fear that the Centre’s attention may turn to other pulses such as chickpea, yellow pea and lentils. A tariff barrier (imposition of customs duty) is being contemplated. It would, of course, be a short-sighted move and ill-advised.

Fumigation issue However, a larger question remains unresolved as yet. It relates to fumigation of imported pulses with methyl bromide. For many years, the Centre allowed the imported cargo to be treated at the destination port (instead of at the loading port) and continued to grant extension of the facility from time to time. Now that domestic market conditions — availability and prices — are consumer- friendly, there is a strong indication that the facility may not be extended beyond December 31. In the event, direct shipments from major exporting countries such as Canada are likely to be affected.

Canada concerned As India’s largest trading partner in pulses, Canada is deeply disturbed. Several delegations of ministers and officials have already visited India in recent months to lobby for the status quo, and more are expected to arrive in November.

Canada’s concern seems to be that it may be discriminated against with respect to market access. So, it is seeking equal treatment of all countries that supply pulses to India. There is also the possibility, though remote at this point, that Canada may drag India to the WTO seeking a level playing field for all suppliers.

The author is a global agri-business and commodities market specialist. Views are personal.

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