At least 76 per cent of India’s geographical area has been parched with rainfall under the influence of the South-West Monsoon being 31 per cent deficient. 3 The deficiency has been attributed to a break in the monsoon, which got stalled from May 29. However, after 16 days, it has revived, though it is yet to progress much from the northern limit until May 29.

In the daily bulletin on Monday, the weather bureau said that conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon over some parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh, and remaining parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Odisha during next 2-3 days. The Northern Limit of Monsoon currently passes through Veraval, Bhavnagar, Vadodara, Khargone, Amravati, Durg, Bargarh, Chandbali, Sandhead Island, and Balurghat.

Between June 15 and June 16, monsoon advanced into some parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Odisha and Chhattisgarh, and also remaining parts of Konkan, madhya Maharashtra and Telangana, it said.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast, June was expected to receive “above-normal” rainfall, at 108 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 166.9 mm. Most parts of the country were predicted to experience normal to above-normal rainfall, while some areas in the southern peninsula, north-west and north-east regions were expected to have below-normal rainfall this month.

However, the official data show that actual rainfall during June 1-15 in the country as a whole was 42.9 mm as against 62.1 mm, which is considered normal. All the meteorological subdivisions had below normal rainfall – 39 per cent deficit in east and north-east, 38 per cent in north-west, 34 per cent Central India, and 11 per cent in southern peninsula.

Till June 11, the deficiency in the southern states was 25 per cent, but after the revival of monsoon and rains during the past three days, the deficit has narrowed down to 3 per cent until June 16, scientists said. Daily rainfall on June 16 in south peninsula was 119 per cent above normal as all regions except Telangana, Puducherry and Rayalaseema regions had very heavy precipitation.

“It is possible to have excess rain in second half of June as there was 46 per cent surplus on June 16 alone. How the monsoon pulsate gets strength and how it covers further areas in the north will determine whether we will be able to achieve the predicted 108 per cent rainfall for the whole month,” a source said. The country has to receive 31 per cent surplus rain in second fortnight of June to reach the predicted 180 mm rainfall for the whole month.

The government is yet to start weekly update of Kharif sowing progress as it has not commenced in large parts of the country due to stalled monsoon.

The pre-monsoon rainfall during March-May period ended with 42 per cent surplus, thanks to early arrival of monsoon as well as more number of western disturbances, low pressures.

Published on June 16, 2025