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With very severe cyclone ‘Titli’ in the Bay of Bengal ending its expansive run at the Odisha coast on Thursday, the focus has shifted back to the timeline for commencement of the North-East monsoon, which it had disrupted in the first place.
Global models indicate that friendly southerlies to south-easterlies may trigger hit-and-miss thundershowers over the South Peninsula from around October 16, but it might take a little longer for the north-easterlies to arrive.
Seasonal winds
The US National Weather Services has been hinting that these seasonal winds may resume their normal course from around October 20.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts tend to agree with this outlook.
What actually will likely turn the tide in South Peninsula’s favour is a circulation (low-pressure area) developing over the South China Sea, which could propagate rain waves into the Bay of Bengal and onwards into the South Peninsula.
Earlier on Thursday morning, the destructive ‘Titli’ crossed the North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha coast, near Palasa in Srikakulam district, between 4.30 am and 5.30 am accompanied by heavy to very heavy rain and high winds.
The India Met Department (IMD) said in an evening update that the cyclone ‘Titli’ was located last over South Odisha about 110 km West of Gopalpur and 140 km South-West of Phulbani.
Heavy rain, winds
It is expected to move towards the plains of Bengal and weaken gradually.
Heavy to very heavy rain is being forecast for Assam and Meghalaya; heavy to very heavy over plains of Bengal, Odisha and the North-Eastern States; and heavy rain over Jharkhand, hills of Bengal, and Arunachal Pradesh. A high wind regime will prevail over Odisha and Bengal coasts until Friday morning.
The sea conditions will be ‘very rough’ (wave heights of eight feet) over West-Central and North Bay of Bengal and along and off south Odisha and adjoining North Andhra Pradesh coasts until Friday morning and gradually improve thereafter. Meanwhile, the other very severe cyclone ‘Luban’ over the Arabian Sea lay closer to the South Oman and Yemen coasts. The Civil Aviation and Meteorology Authority of the Republic of Yemen has issued a ‘yellow alert’ along the coast.
It is the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre of the IMD that issues forecasts for the region.
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