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The Centre has revised upwards its wheat output estimates for 2010-11 to 84.27 million tonnes (mt), perhaps setting the stage for lifting restrictions on grain exports.
The 84.27 mt figure — based on the third advance estimates of crop output released by the Agriculture Minister, Mr Sharad Pawar, here on Wednesday — is higher than the second advance estimate of 81.47 mt made on February 9.
Mr Pawar's Ministry has also significantly raised its production estimate for oilseeds (especially soyabean), sugarcane and pulses. Sugarcane output, which was put at 324.912 mt in the first advance estimate and 336.698 mt in the second, is now projected to touch 340.545 mt. Whether it would translate into higher-than-anticipated production of sugar is to be seen.
On the whole, 2010-11 is expected to register a record harvest of foodgrains (235.88 mt) — and within that, wheat and pulses (17.29 mt) — in addition to oilseeds (30.251 mt) and cotton (33.927 million bales). Within pulses, arhar (3.15 mt) and urad (1.82 mt) production are slated to hit all-time-highs, just as soyabean (12.589 mt) and castor-seed (1.307 mt) are in oilseeds. But the real story is in wheat, the harvesting of which has just started. A crop size of 84.27 mt will, apart from contributing to a further easing of food inflationary pressures, also pose problems for the Food Corporation of India.
As on April 1, total grain stocks in the Central pool were placed at 45 mt (15 mt wheat and 30 mt rice) as against their corresponding normative required levels of 21.2 mt (7 mt and 14.2 mt) for that date.
“Our stocks are more than the buffer norm. In such a situation, we must take a view on exports as soon as possible. I am sure the Government will apply its mind and take an appropriate decision amidst bumper harvests,” Mr Pawar told presspersons.
The latest foodgrain production estimate of 235.88 mt surpasses the previous record of 234.47 mt achieved in 2008-09. Exports of wheat have been banned since February 9, 2007, with non-basmati rice shipments, too, prohibited with effect from April 1, 2008.
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