India's exports and imports are now in a distinct slowdown mode, with September trade figures confirming the trend that began in August.

Exports in September grew only at 36.3 per cent to $24.8 billion, while imports increased just 17.2 per cent to $34.6 billion.

Exports in July had soared by almost 82 per cent and slowed down to 44.25 per cent in August. The deceleration is because of demand in traditional markets such as the US and the European Union have fallen off.

“Exports continue to grow over last year, but the heady numbers have gone, it is clear there is deceleration. That is the surest sign of times to come,” the Commerce Secretary, Dr Rahul Khullar, said. “Japan is also not in great shape, China is slowing, Brazil also has problem. So the prognosis for the next six months is a slowdown in export growth.”

Exports will, however, touch the $300 billion-target for 2011-12 as shipments during April-September have already touched $160 billion at a growth rate of 52.1 per cent, he said.

IMPORTS

Import growth in July was 51.52 per cent and it had decelerated to a 41.82 per cent growth in August.

Imports increased by 32.4 per cent to $233.5 billion during April-September, widening the trade deficit to $73.5 billion.

The increasing trade deficit is “clearly not good news,” Dr Khullar said, adding that at this rate, it could be anywhere between $133-147 billion for 2011-12 and indicated that it could have an impact on the country's external balance of payments position.

Barring iron ore, tobacco, fruits and vegetables, all other items in the export basket registered a positive growth during April-September.

arun.s@thehindu.co.in

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