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The demand for primary aluminium is set to touch 75 million tonnes by 2020, primarily with India, China and Brazil emerging as the new growth centres for aluminium-based products.
In 2010, the production of the metal globally had increased to 40 million tonnes. In addition to this, 10 mt of the metal came from recycling industrial scrap and another 10 mt was produced through recycling of the metal.
“The 20 million tonnes of re-cycled metal will remain stagnant and, in fact, reduce over the years. There will be a strong demand for primary aluminium from China, India and Brazil, as the construction, electrification and manufacturing sectors are growing at a healthy pace,” according to Mr Chris Bayliss, Director of Global Projects, International Aluminium Institute (IAI).
Domestic demand up
While China continues to remain the top aluminium producer and consumer in the world, the demand for the metal touched its peak in India last year with a 11-per cent growth, although per capita consumption here is amongst the lowest in the world.
However, there are concerns relating to production of 75 million tonnes of aluminium by 2020, as capacity addition has been very poor over the last few years, Mr Bayliss said on the sidelines of the INCAL meet here on Thursday.
“China had initially decided to cap smelting capacity because of various reasons. But now we hear that they will reverse that decision. Only China has the capability to add smelting capacity in quick time,” he noted.
The IAI expects additional smelting capacity to be added in Western Africa to the tune of five mt and India with two mt in the next five years. “But we still face a deficit of about 28 mt,” he said.
Supply of bauxite, the primary mineral for aluminium production, is another area of concern, as mining has not been developed at the desired pace. “Indonesia may not be in a position to supply adequate bauxite to China, as it has major plans for smelting aluminium on its own to meet its domestic demand. This can be problem unless China finds new sources of the mineral. The bauxite reserves in China are likely to last for another decade,” Mr Bayliss pointed out.
Against this background, mining firms are pushing for expanding operations in Australia, India and West Africa.
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