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India is likely to become the world’s fastest growing exporter and UAE’s top export and import destination by 2030, according to a study.
The latest HSBC Trade Forecast yesterday said India has the potential to become the world’s fifth largest exporter of goods by value from the 14th spot from 2014 to 2030.
Besides India, the UAE’s fastest growing export markets will be China, Malaysia, Turkey — each of which will see the fastest growth rates between 2017 and 2030.
Import growth for the UAE will be fastest for goods originating from China, India, Turkey and Vietnam.
“Sectors such as infrastructure and construction, tourism, retail and Government investments in technology will continue to be the main drivers of the UAE’s economy going forward.
That said, we still expect petroleum products to remain both the largest category of total exports and the largest contributor to total export growth up to 2030,” said Tim Evans, Regional Head of Global Trade and Receivables Finance.
“It (petroleum products) will account for over 40 per cent of total export growth over this forecast horizon. So it is no surprise to see energy hungry countries such as India and China on top of the UAE’s export list,” said Evans.
By 2030, China is expected to increase its overseas shipments five-fold as it strengthens commercial ties to emerging Asia, West Asia and North Africa.
According to the Trade Confidence Index, the UAE remains firmly positive about increasing trade activity over the next six months.
The country ranked third out of the 23 countries surveyed.
47 per cent of respondents believe trading volumes will increase ‘slightly’ over the next six months, and another 16 per cent believe the increase in trade volumes will be ‘significant’
An increase in demand — either globally or in key markets — is cited as the basis for this increase by around 45 per cent of respondents.
Globally, world trade is set to resume its growth trajectory in 2016, presenting fresh opportunities for businesses that have positioned themselves to benefit.
The Index showed that 65 per cent of businesses surveyed reported current trade activity with these regions, while 75 per cent believe that Asia or West Asia and North Africa will have the best opportunities of growth over the next six months.
“UAE importers will continue to have their main focus on Asia and intra-regional trade as well. It will be these markets that prove to be the fastest growing corridors for the country’s long-term import growth,” said Evans.
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