Despite the economic downturn casting its shadow over the employment prospects in some high-income countries, the remittances worldwide are projected to reach $406 billion in 2011 calendar year, posting an eight per cent growth over the previous year.

Of this, the developing countries account for the lion's share of $351 billion with India topping the list ($58 billion), followed by China ($57 billion), Mexico ($24 billion) and the Philippines ($23 billion), according to the latest World Bank update on remittances.

Though the economic crisis has impacted private capital flows, the global remittances are forecast to keep growing and touch $515 billion by 2014 with the share of the developing countries rising in tandem to $441 billion.

The report notes that high oil prices have provided a cushion for remittances to central Asia from Russia and to south and east Asia from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The depreciation of currencies in some migrant-exporting countries, like India, Mexico and Bangladesh, provided additional incentives for remittances.

While the remittances to east Europe, central, south and east Asia, Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa were faster than expected, Latin American and Caribbean countries showed slower than projected growth due to the continuing weakness in the US economy.

The ‘Arab spring' saw to it that West Asia and North Africa recorded the slowest growth rate of 2.6 per cent among the developing countries.

Flip side

On the flip side, the report says that the persistent unemployment in Europe and the US is affecting the prospects of the existing migrants, even as the hardening political attitudes have come in the way of new immigration. Volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about the direction of the oil prices also pose further challenges to remittances.

> vinoottan@thehindu.co.in

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