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India’s liquid fuel consumption, which includes crude oil and refined petroleum products, is expected to grow at an average of 0.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024, the US EIA has said.
According to the US EIA’s short-term energy outlook (STEO), global liquid fuel consumption is projected to increase by 1.8 mb/d in 2023 and by 1.3 mb/d in 2024. Most of the expected growth in liquid fuels demand is in non-OECD Asia, led by China and India.
“We expect China’s liquid fuels consumption to rise by 0.8 mb/d in 2023 and by 0.3 mb/d in 2024. India’s liquid fuels consumption in our forecast increases by an average of 0.3 mb/d in both 2023 and 2024,” it added.
Liquid fuels include crude oil and refined petroleum products, natural gas liquids, biofuels and liquids derived from other hydrocarbon sources (including coal to liquids and gas to liquids). It does not include liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid hydrogen.
Rising consumption
The US Department of Energy’s statistical and analytical agency has projected India’s petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption at 5.65 mb/d in Q1 2024 calendar year, 5.72 mb/d in April-June 2024, 5.34 mb/d and 5.68 mb/d in Q3 and Q4 2024, respectively.
For the entire 2024, the world’s third-largest crude oil importer’s consumption of liquid fuels as well as crude oil is projected at 5.6 mb/d, against 5.31 mb/d in the current calendar year and 5.02 mb/d in 2022.
OPEC has projected India’s oil demand in 2024 at 5.59 mb/d against 5.37 mb/d in 2023 and 5.14 mb/d in 2022.
In Q1 2024, oil demand is projected to grow by a healthy 227,000 barrels per day (b/d), on an annual basis, OPEC said in its monthly oil market report of December 2023.
“Distillates are expected to be the driver of oil demand growth, supported by harvesting, construction and manufacturing activities. Additionally, annual traditional festivities and the influx of travellers are expected to support transportation activity and boost gasoline and jet/ kerosene demand. Overall, in 2024, India is expected to see a healthy oil demand growth of 220,000 b/d, Y-o-Y,” it added.
Crude oil prices
The US EIA’s outlook expects the Brent price to increase from an average of $78 per barrel in December 2023 to an average of $83 per barrel for 2024.
“Our forecast annual peak in the mid-$80 per barrel range at the end of Q1 2024, was about $10 a barrel higher than futures contracts for delivery during that period when we closed STEO forecast runs. We expect OPEC+ production cuts will offset lower global demand growth, prevent increases in global oil inventories, and keep Brent prices above $80 a barrel next year. Although we forecast crude oil prices to increase from the current price, we reduced our forecast for the 2024 annual average Brent price by $11 per barrel from our November STEO,” it added.
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