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Drawing attention to possible unbalanced growth in elderly population in the country, State Bank of India, in a research report, said that by 2050 more than a fifth of the population in the four southern States — Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu — will turn elder.
Similarly, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Odisha will also see a large percentage of their population turning old.
“We believe that this will have implications on continued inter-mobility of labour from East and North East India (which has been happening for last one decade) to South India and even Western India. “States like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Assam, Bihar and Haryana will continue to have significantly young population even in 2050, thus further pushing migration of young labour force to the ageing States. This will solve the issue of labour supply to some extent,” according to SBI’research report “Ecowrap”.
Migration trends
In coming decades, a huge migration can be expected from ‘Young North-India’ to ‘Elder South-India’, resulting in imminent pressure on southern States in terms of infrastructure (both social and physical), the report said.
As people turn older (65 years and above) in the four southern States, the report assessed that the savings might initially rise and then should start declining with increasing health expenses and people living more on old age pensions..
“This would also mean that Indian banks will have to innovate to offer life cycle based deposit products for consumers,” said Ecowrap.
Also, States that have younger population would need to set up labour-intensive industries to provide support to their young labour force.
The report noted that some southern States (such as Andhra Pradesh) have started encouraging people to have more children in order to avoid “demographic crisis”.
Further, analysis by SBI’s economic research department (ERD) reveal that the southern States are already more prosperous than their northern counterparts and the income gap between the two regions is quite wide.
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