India’s steel trade deficit has widened to over ₹31,350 crore in value – amongst the highest in the last five years – for first nine months of FY25 (April – December) as import surge continues, a Union Steel Ministry report, accessed by businessline, shows. Trade deficit widened by 18 per cent on a sequential basis, which was at ₹26,394 crore, till November (8MFY25).

The report points out that China continues to be the dominant importer, while re-routing of shipments are now happening through other FTA counties like Indonesia. Which in turn led to flat steel prices in India declining marginally. The report adds “amid slow market activity and “cheap import offerings” as two probable causes.

Exports for the 9MFY25 period – stood at ₹29,821 crore for 3.6 million tonnes (mt), substantially lower than the imports – at ₹61,171 crore for 7.5 mt, indicating that India was a net importer of steel.

“There is a continued surge in imports specially with offerings now being routed through FTA countries. While some slowdown was noticed in shipments from Vietnam and even China, but countries like Indonesia and Japan are shipping in high quantities,” a Ministry official said.

Import Surge

Volume-wise HR coil / strip at 3.2 mt was most imported – accounting for 46 per cent of total finished steel imports. “China was the largest import market for import,” the report mentioned.

Chinese exports to India stood at 2.2 mt, up by 13 per cent y-o-y, indicating that nearly one out of every three import happening in the country was from an Asian nation. Intensity of imports are slightly lower than last fiscal when 33 per cent of the total imports (one out of every thee) was from China, that is 1.9 mt out of 6.0 mt.

Japan saw the highest increase of nearly 94 per cent y-o-y to 1.6 mt, while Korea – the second largest import market – saw a near 7 per cent increase y-o-y to 2.1 mt.

Following anti-dumping probe, shipments from Vietnam – allegedly Chinese shipments being routed through FTAs – moderated to 0.7 mt, near flat on a y-o-y basis; but shipments from Indonesia saw a substantial rise up 80 per cent y-o-y to 0.2 mt.

Stainless steel continued to be the major import items across countries like China (37 per cent of shipments) and Indonesia (95 per cent of shipments). In fact, it was only in stainless steel supplies that saw China overtake traditional large Indian buyer markets like Korea and Japan.

Exports and Price Movement

Exports remained depressed.

Continued economic stress in big ticket European nations – a lull in restocking or trading activities despite a m-o-m rise in steel prices - were visible with Italy, Spain and Belgium witnessing a 39 per cent, 18 per cent and 16 per cent drop in shipments y-o-y to 0.6 mt, 0.3 mt and 0.4 mt. The three markets together account for nearly 40 per cent of India’s finished steel exports.

There was a rise in shipments to the UK, up 20 per cent y-o-y to 0.3, primarily because of Tata Steel supplying raw materials to ensure continuity of its UK-ops.

The Steel Ministry report mentioned that “steel prices came down in December 2024 y-o-y in major markets like China, India and the USA.”

Market sentiments remained weak in China and announced trade stimulus measures there have been “insufficient”. Long steel prices there remained under pressure because of weak construction activity. This indicates, sources said, there were excess stocks in country which would be pushed into other markets globally including in India.

Published on January 30, 2025