India is likely to surpass Japan and UK to become the third largest market for Apple in terms of shipments in 2026, according to Counterpoint Research Market Outlook.

It said 2023 was a record year for Apple in India. It was the first year when iPhone shipments crossed the 10-million mark in the country. For the first time, Apple became the top brand in India in terms of revenue.

Brand affinity

At the same time, “Made in India” smartphones contributed 13 per cent of Global iPhone shipments in 2023, compared to one per cent in 2018, the global research firm said. It added that owing to these efforts and Apple’s brand affinity, India is likely to remain the fastest growing market for Apple in 2024 and 2025.

“There is a significant rise in the premium segment in India. Consumers are ready to spend more on their smartphones and Apple, with its aspirational image and rising footprint has become an obvious choice for premium consumers in India. For Indians, iPhone is more than a smartphone, it’s a lifestyle statement,” Varun Mishra, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, told businessline.

The growth in India will also be key in offsetting some of the decline in China market, he said.

“As markets like Western Europe, the US, Japan are becoming saturated, emerging markets like India and Middle East (West Asia) and Africa will be the growth driver for Apple in future,” he added.

From a global perspective, the report titled Apple 360 service said that Apple’s services segment is likely to capture one-fourth of the company’s total revenue in 2025.

It said that 2025 will also mark the year when services revenue crosses the $100-billion-per-year mark for the first time. Further, the company should breach the $400-billion revenue mark for the first time in 2024, supported by the growth of its hardware and services segments.

Apple Store and Apple Care+

Apple’s growing installed base, which currently exceeds two billion devices, has created a flywheel effect on the growth of the brand’s services business. Apple Store, followed by Apple Care+, Apple Music and a round-up Apple One subscription, has driven inflection points for Apple with a growing device base, the report highlighted.

Launched in 2023, AppleOne could become the single largest contributor to Apple’s services revenue, adding that iPhones will continue to capture half of Apple’s revenue and remain the centrepiece of Apple’s ecosystem. Premiumisation trends and growth in emerging markets benefit Apple’s iPhone business, likely to offset some of the volume decline seen in China earlier this year.

iPhone growth in emerging markets should also help with future growth for other Apple products, as many consumers will be new users entering the iOS ecosystem. As these consumers become more dependent on their iPhones, they are likely to spend more on other Apple products, the report added.