MCX-crude oil could see a bullish break out

Gurumurthy K BL Research Bureau | Updated on June 12, 2014 Published on June 12, 2014

The MCX-crude oil futures contract has risen sharply by about 3 per cent in the past week.

Although the contract is still trading within its ₹5,930-6,340 a barrel range, the probability is now high for a breach of ₹6,340 now.

The reason: global crude oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) has breached its crucial resistance level of $105/barrel. It can now target $111 in the short-term.

This could be a trigger for a rise in the MCX-crude oil contract, which moves in tandem with the global price. The 200-day moving average at ₹6,161 is a key support for the contract.

A rise to ₹6,340 looks likely in the coming days.

A break above ₹6,340 can then target ₹6,420.

Traders with a short-term perspective can go long with a stop-loss at ₹6,120 for the target of ₹6,400.

MCX-Natural gas

The MCX-natural gas futures contract found resistance near ₹281 per mmBtu and has reversed lower this week. It is now poised near an important support at ₹268, the 21-day moving average.

A break below this level can drag the contract lower to ₹264 while a reversal from ₹268 can take the contract higher to ₹275.

Traders can avoid trading this contract at this juncture.

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Published on June 12, 2014
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