There is now growing unease about the 2021-22 rabi crop production numbers released by the Ministry of Agriculture last month. Belief is gaining ground that the official harvest numbers are overstated, in some cases by a wide margin.

Major rabi crops, currently under the scanner of market participants, include wheat, maize, pulses (mainly chana or chickpea) and oilseeds (mainly rapeseed-mustard).

Planted on 34.3 million hectares (last year on 34.6 mh), wheat production is estimated by the government at a new high of 111.3 million tonnes (109 mt). This number is seen overestimated by at least 10 per cent. There is nothing to suggest that wheat yields have improved to well above three tonnes per hectare this season.

If anything, large users are drawing their annual balance sheet based on wheat harvest size of 100 mt and not more. Harvest has commenced on a modest scale in some parts of the country including Gujarat. Over the next 2-3 weeks, it will gradually spread northwards to cover Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

The case of rabi maize is curious. The government’s own estimate of planted area for the season is 1.9 mh and production is pegged at 9.8 mt, disclosing yield of close to five tonnes a hectare. It is recognised that rabi yields are usually high, but not really at an outlandish five tonnes.

Inflated pulses production

Pulses production numbers are seen far removed from reality. From a planted area of 16.8 mh, production is estimated at 18.3 mt. Specifically, chana or chickpea production number at 13.1 mt from 11.5 mh appears unrealistic. Many assert, chana harvest can be no more than 10 mt given the planted area, weather and agronomy.

In other words, government estimate of chana crop is overstated by a whopping 30 per cent. It is most likely the harvest numbers will be reviewed and brought to more realistic levels in the next estimate due by May.

In case of pulses, the government has revised the kharif pulse crop down to 8.6 mt from the first estimate of 9.5 mt published in September 2021. In its Commentary on September 23, 2021, Business Line had highlighted the overestimation – ‘Government’s Kharif pulses production estimate is overstated’. The second estimate has now rectified the number.

In case of rabi oilseeds, from a total area of 10.3 mh, harvest size is an estimated 13.3 mt. In particular, rapeseed/mustard crop is placed at a record 11.5 mt (10.2 mt) from a planted area of 9.2 mh (7.3 mh).

It is likely that high open market prices might have encouraged a massive two million hectares expansion in planted area. However, the per hectare yield works out to 1.25 tonnes which seems less-realistic under extant Indian conditions. Industry experts concede in private that the crop number might have been overstated by up to 15 per cent.

There’s a risk is overstating the crop size. The policymakers may be caught unawares when reality bites. Yet, it must be stated that even after suitably discounting the government’s harvest data, the domestic availability will be comfortable in case of wheat, chickpea and mustard.

The author is a policy commentator and agribusiness specialist. Views are personal.

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