Recession fears continue to have crude oil futures on leash

BL Mangaluru Bureau | Updated on: Jul 04, 2022

Supply-side constraints prevent them from further fall

Notwithstanding supply disruptions from various oil-producing countries, the global crude oil futures traded lower early Monday as fears of recession continued to haunt the global markets.

At 10.03 am, the September Brent oil futures were at $111.52, down by 0.09 per cent, and August crude oil futures on WTI were at $108.16, down by 0.25 per cent.

July crude oil futures were trading at ₹8,552 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in the early deals against the previous close of ₹8,605, down by 0.62 per cent; and August futures were trading at ₹8,349 as against the previous close of ₹8,389, down by 0.48 per cent.

Analysts had earlier opined that the US Fed Reserve’s decision to hike interest rates aggressively to control inflation could lead to a recession in that country.

Output-related problems

However, the supply-side constraints stopped the crude oil futures declining further. Some of the oil producers such as Libya and Norway are facing production-related issues. In addition, the ban on the Russian crude oil imports by some western nations also impacted the supply situation in the already tight market. These factors helped easing of the weakness in the crude oil market.

Saish Sandeep Sawant Dessai, Research Associate, Base Metals, Angel One Ltd, said the rising dollar, which makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, was a reason that kept prices under pressure.

In his outlook for the day, he said: “Prices are expected to remain elevated as the perceived tightness in the oil supply is lending resilience to oil prices.”

Copper cool, dhaniya hot

July copper futures were trading at ₹677.50 on MCX in the early deals on Monday against the previous close of ₹679.05, down by 0.23 per cent.

In his outlook for the day, Saish Sandeep Sawant Dessai said: “We expect copper to trade lower towards ₹671 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to ₹661 levels.”

On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), July dhaniya futures were trading at ₹11,798 in the initial hour of Monday morning against the previous close of ₹11,346, up by 3.98 per cent.

July guarseed contracts were trading at ₹5,162 on NCDEX in the initial hour of Monday morning against the previous close of ₹5,178, down by 0.31 per cent.

Published on July 04, 2022
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