Rising dollar, S&P downgrade to provide direction to commodities

The threat of S&P downgrade and a rising dollar will continue to sway commodities across the board in the domestic market on Thursday.

With Spain worries leading to further fall in the euro against the dollar, the rupee is likely to decline further. A rising dollar will make gold imports costly and hence, gold could continue to gain.

Gold has been gaining in the domestic market with the fall in the rupee this week. In New York, spot gold closed lower at $1,762.90 an ounce.

Oil and oilseeds market is likely to come under pressure of soyabeans on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) as it saw the biggest drop in a week. Soyabean for delivery in November slid to $15.2325 a bushel. Palm oil, on the other hand, had gained on Wednesday on higher exports during October 1-10. The declining rupee is likely to cap any sharp fall in edible oil prices.

Reports of lower arrivals, too, are likely to create an upward pressure.

Industrial maize (corn) could gain despite corn dropping on CBOT for December delivery to $7.3675 a bushel since wheat gained. Any gain in wheat, which edged up to $8.6975, could lead to rise in prices in the domestic market. In turn, it could affect its export potential. Indian wheat is mainly seen meeting feed needs in South-East Asia and the Far-East.

This, in turn, will lift industrial maize prices. Maize finds takers for feed in South-East Asia and the Far-East. But again currency movements will decide on the exact movements in these counters.

Crude oil is likely to come under pressure after it dropped in the global market. This could also put pressure on natural rubber since drop in crude oil prices will lead to lower prices of synthetic rubber.

Sugar futures could also decline with raw sugar for March delivery dropped to 21.26 cents a pound. Higher supply in the domestic market is already casting its shadow on the counter.

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