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Sugar output for the 2014-15 season starting October is projected to be 4 per cent higher at 25.3 million tonnes, according to preliminary estimates by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), the apex industry body. For the current 2013-14 season ending September, sugar production was pegged at around 24.3 million tonnes (mt).
ISMA’s preliminary estimates are based on the analysis of the mid-June satellite images of sugarcane acreage across the country. According to the analysis, the total cane acreage is about 2 per cent lower than last year at 52.30 lakh hectares, with the shortfall coming in mainly from Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
However, with Maharashtra and Karnataka registering an increase in acreage, coupled with higher recoveries and yields, the total estimated sugar output for 2014-15 is likely to be higher than the current season, ISMA said.
The industry body will come out with its first advance estimates for the 2014-15 season in September, by when there will be more clarity on the progress of monsoon and crop area.
Better reservoir levels this year is likely to help minimise the impact of lower rainfall, if any, in June and July, it said.
In Uttar Pradesh, the cane acreage for 2014-15 season is expected to be lower by around 9 per cent and the production of the sweetener might be lower than last season’s 6.5 mt. In Maharashtra, the cane acreage is seen higher by around 13 per cent than last year and the sugar production could exceed last season’s 7.7 mt.
In Karnataka, the cane acreage is seen higher by 5 per cent and sugar production is set to exceed the current year’s 4.15 mt.
The acreage in Tamil Nadu is seen to be lower by 7 per cent over last year and the sugar production may see a further fall from the current year’s 1.4 mt to even less in the next season. However, in Gujarat cane acreage is higher by around 4 per cent and sugar production might go up from current year’s 1.17 mt.
With an estimated opening balance of sugar of around 7.5 mt as on October 1, 2014 and sugar production as estimated above there will more than sufficient stock to meet domestic requirement, of around 24.5 mt next year, ISMA said.
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