Gift Nifty at 23,200 indicates a gap-up opening of about 50 points for Nifty. However, analysts said the downtrend is likely to continue, given the unabated selling by foreign portfolio investors and the poor performance by India Inc in the third quarter.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said: The 25 per cent steel and 10 per cent aluminium tariffs by the US has raised investors’ concerns globally. Further, Trump’s proposed plan for reciprocal tariffs is hurting sentiment in India. “According to news report, India is reviewing surcharges on 30+ items in response. Also, PM Modi’s two-day US visit starting Wednesday (February 12) comes at a crucial moment. As he meets Trump to discuss trade, markets anticipate a breakthrough that could ease tariff tensions and restore confidence,” he said.

According to analysts, sentiment remains bearish and the mood is to sell on every rise.

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said: Derivatives data reflects a bearish inclination, with call sellers maintaining dominance over put writers, signalling a shift in control toward the bears. The 24,000-strike call witnessed a sharp increase in open interest (1.62 crore contracts), reinforcing it as a stiff resistance level. “On the flip side, put writing at the 22,500 strike (91.19 lakh contracts) indicates a strong support zone on the downside. Fresh call writing across the 23,300–23,600 strikes further strengthens resistance, while put unwinding at lower strikes signifies a bearish market realignment. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dropped to 0.53 from 0.59, reinforcing the shift in sentiment towards the downside. However, the ‘Max Pain’ level at 23,300 suggests a limited downside, despite heightened volatility,” he added.

India VIX, a crucial gauge of market sentiment, surged 2.94 per cent to 14.87, indicating slightly elevated uncertainty. However, with VIX still hovering below the key 15-level, the broader sentiment remains cautiously optimistic yet measured, he added.

The short-term trend remains weak as Nifty is below its 5, 11, and 20 DEMA. The previous support of 23222 is likely to serve as near-term resistance, while immediate support is set at 22976, followed by 22800 levels, said Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research, HDFC Securities

Published on February 12, 2025