Idea Cellular likely to move in a narrow range

I purchased Great Offshore January futures at Rs 383, which is down sharply to Rs 340. I am not in a position to book the loss, but if required I can add one more lot to average. Please suggest a way to reduce loss and come out with profit? - C.N. Karambelkar

Great Offshore (Rs 344): The outlook remains negative as long as the stock rules below Rs 445. The immediate resistance appears at Rs 363 while the crucial support at Rs 331. A close below Rs 331 could weaken the stock to Rs 279.

F&O pointers: Great Offshore February futures closed with higher premium indicating long rollovers. The overall rollover stood at 33 per cent. Options are not active.

Strategy: Exit from the position. The averaging concept generally never works even in the cash segment. There is possibility of a technical pull back, which you can capitalise to quit.

I purchased one lot of Idea Cellular January 75 call option at Rs 0.75 and one lot of NHPC January 30 call at Rs 0.50. Is it better to hold or exit? – Dharmasheel kamble

Idea Cellular: The stock is likely to move in a narrow range of 65-75. Only a break from this level could set a clear direction for the stock.

F&O pointers: The futures witnessed a rollover of 29 per cent. Options are not that active.

Strategy: Only a close above Rs 75 would make your position profitable. As you have lost considerably, it is wise to keep your position open, though the chance of making money is negligible.

NHPC: The outlook remains negative for NHPC, as long as it rules below Rs 32. The stock finds an immediate resistance at Rs 28, while a close below its 52-week low Rs 26.35, the stock would tumble to Rs 23.5.

F&O pointers: The counter saw a rollover of 26 per cent to next month series, most of which are longs. Options are not that active.

Strategy: Your position is almost carrying nil value.

I have a long position in Aban Offshore February at Rs 718. - R. Dhanasekaran, Bangalore

Aban Offshore (Rs 715): The stock is ruling at crucial level. It finds an immediate support at Rs 685 and resistance at Rs 745. The next resistance appears at Rs 802. A close below the support level could weaken it to Rs 652. Only a close above Rs 904 would change the outlook positive for the stock.

F&O pointers: The counter saw a healthy rollover of 41 per cent. Options are not that active.

Strategy: Consider holding your position with a stop loss at Rs 712 (spot price on a closing day basis) for an initial target of Rs 745. If Aban opens above your entry level, shift stop loss to that point.

I bought Reliance Infra January futures at Rs 755. Please advice. - Bhuvaneswari

Reliance Infrastructure: The outlook remains negative for Reliance Infra. The stock finds an immediate support at Rs 722 and resistance at Rs 785. The major resistance appears at Rs 825, while a close below Rs 722 could weaken to Rs 627.

F&O pointers: The counter witnessed only a modest rollover of 22 per cent. However, option trading presents a positive bias.

Strategy: Hold/rollover your position with a tight stop loss at Rs 722 (spot price on a closing day basis) for an initial target of Rs 785.

NOTE: The analysis and opinion expressed in this column are based on F&O data available at this point of time and on technical analysis based on past price movements. There is risk of loss in trading.

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