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European stocks fell and bond yields rose on Friday, driven by German trade figures that cast doubt on the strength of the euro zone’s largest economy and lingering disappointment after the European Central Bank’s policy meeting the previous day.
German exports fell sharply in July, shrinking the overall trade surplus for the fourth consecutive month -- something not seen since 1992 -- and putting the continent’s benchmark stock index on course for its first weekly fall in three.
N. Korea nuclear test
The nervy tone was set earlier in the day when Asian markets extended losses after North Korea conducted its fifth and most powerful nuclear test, while investors are keenly awaiting a speech on Monday by US policymaker Lael Brainard.
Europe’s FTSEuroFirst 300 index of leading shares was down 0.3 per cent at 1,370 points, dragging it down 0.7 per cent on the week.
Germany’s DAX fell 0.4 per cent, and France’s CAC 40 and Britain’s FTSE 100 were both down 0.3 per cent, while US futures pointed to a fall of around 0.2 per cent at the open on Wall Street.
“The month of July was clearly not a good month for Germany,” ING economist Carsten Brzeski said.
“A further cooling of the economy in the months ahead should give more support to just-started discussions about fiscal stimulus.”
ECB policy stance
On Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking after the central bank kept its policy on hold as expected, had said the ECB was looking at options to continue its money-printing programme, but maintained the March end-date for asset purchases.
That disappointed investors who were looking for more immediate action, including an extension or expansion of the current plan, or at least clearer hints of future actions.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1 per cent, its biggest fall in over a month, after touching a 13-month high on Thursday. The decline shrank gains for the week to 2 per cent.
Japan’s Nikkei closed flat after pulling back earlier on reports of the North Korean nuclear test. It was up 0.2 per cent for the week.
North Korea’s nuclear test set off a blast that was more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, with the nation saying it had mastered the ability to mount a warhead on a ballistic missile.
Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 lost 0.22 per cent, weighed down by a 2.6 per cent fall in Apple on disappointment over its latest iPhone, though gains in energy shares offset losses in most other sectors.
Brainard test
European bond markets remained under pressure following the ECB meeting, with the 10-year German Bund yield rising around 3 basis points to minus 0.035 per cent. It has traded as low as minus 0.125 per cent earlier this week.
US bond yields also hovered around their highs of the week, with the 10-year bond yield rising to 1.6210 per cent.
The US yield curve reached its steepest level in three weeks at 84 basis points. That means the 10-year yield was 84 basis points higher than the two-year yield, a move driven by the jump in longer-dated borrowing costs.
It was reported late on Thursday that Fed Governor Lael Brainard will make a speech on the US economy on Monday, just before the blackout period for Fed officials ahead of the policy meeting later in the month comes into effect.
Analysts agreed that this late addition to the Fed’s schedule is significant, but were split on how. Will Brainard maintain her dovish stance on policy, or signal a hawkish shift that could pave the way for a rate hike later in the month?
“As a dovish member (of the Fed’s policymaking committee), Brainard would carry a lot of credibility delivering a more hawkish message,” said Deutsche Bank’s Peter Hooper, raising his odds of a September rate hike to 50 per cent from 40 per cent.
In currency markets the euro climbed to $1.1280, and the dollar retreated 0.3 per cent to 102.145 yen.
Oil prices pulled back after surging more than 4 per cent on Thursday to two-week highs on a slump in US Gulf Coast imports to a record low led to a surprisingly large drawdown in US crude stocks.
Brent pulled back 1.2 per cent to $49.39, still up 5.5 per cent this week, and US crude retreated 1.1 per cent to $47.07.
The weakness in the US dollar this week has offered gold a boost. Spot gold was last at $1,335 an ounce, up 0.8 per cent this week, the biggest weekly gain in six weeks.
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