The Reserve Bank of India may keep the interest rates “steady” in its monetary policy review later this month and a rate cut is likely only in the next financial year, according to an SBI research report.

With inflation easing, industry has clamoured for a reduction in interest rates. However, according to SBI, the central bank may keep the rates on hold at its quarterly monetary policy scheduled on January 28.

Wholesale inflation declined to a five-month low of 6.16 per cent in December as food article prices eased, according to data released yesterday. Retail inflation eased to a three-month low of 9.87 per cent.

“RBI may keep the rates steady in January 2014 review and wait for more information, particularly on the trajectory of food inflation, before deciding the next course of policy action because core inflation has remained more or less flat in December 2013,” the report said.

WPI inflation

Prices as measured by the Wholesale Price Index, gained at the slowest pace since July 2013, when the inflation was 5.8 per cent. In November, the WPI inflation increased 7.52 per cent, the fastest pace in 14 months.

SBI said that the WPI inflation may settle at about 6 per cent and the Consumer Price Index inflation at about 9 per cent by February.

CPI inflation

CPI inflation of less than 9 per cent is a possibility if the WPI inflation contracts at a faster pace and as the election season gets closer.

“An overall assessment therefore suggests that a rate cut is likely only in the next financial year,” it said.

Meanwhile, industry chambers have pitched for lower interest rates to prop up growth. Industrial output in November contracted 2.1 per cent, the worst performance in six months.

RBI had kept the key policy rates unchanged last month on expectations that wholesale and retail inflation would ease.

The central bank had increased the key policy rate (repo) twice between September and November to check the inflation. The rate is currently 7.75 per cent.

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