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In the latest State of The Economy podcast, Shishir Sinha and Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank, discuss various economic indicators, offering insights into the current financial landscape, and what to anticipate ahead of the upcoming interim budget/ Vote on Account.
From robust GST collections to a 50% improvement in fiscal deficit over eight months, Sinha and Bhardwaj explore the key takeaways from this. Upasna Bhardwaj emphasises the economy’s resilience across different sectors, despite monetary tightness, and touches on early signs of consumer fatigue, particularly in the rural segment.
The discussion navigates through the global economic scenario, which has proven stronger than anticipated, offering support to India’s export-led sectors.
The podcast scrutinises both sides of the economic coin, addressing concerns about potential fatigue seen in GST collections. Upasna provides insights into the Y-o-Y growth, predicting a stabilisation in the monthly run rate around 1.6 lakh crore.
The discussion also includes recent PMI manufacturing and core sector data, exploring the impact of seasonality and a potential slowdown in manufacturing activity.
Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties take centre stage as potential worries for the Indian economy. Bhardwaj acknowledges the risks but maintains a balanced perspective, highlighting the ongoing global challenges.
The podcast further unravels the fiscal deficit scenario, with Bhardwaj offering a detailed analysis of direct tax collections, excise duty, and expected windfalls from RBI dividends.
Inflation becomes a crucial focus, with Upasna shares expectations of a peak around 6%, driven by food inflation. The discussion anticipates moderation in the coming months, with a yearly overall inflation rate of approximately 5.5%.
At the end, Shishir and Upasana talk about whether this year we will have an interim budget or vote of account and what to expect on the policy front.
Host: Shishir Sinha; Producer: Siddharth Mathew Cherian
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About the State of the Economy podcast
India’s economy has been hailed as a bright spot amid the general gloom that seems to have enveloped the rest of the world. But several sectors continue to stutter even as others seem set to fire on all cylinders. To help you make sense of the bundle of contradictions that the country is, businessline brings you podcasts with experts ranging from finance and marketing to technology and start-ups
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