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In an interesting but welcome twist in outlook for the monsoon, a remnant of weakening cyclone Nanauk is seen crawling its way back off Oman coast towards India’s west coast.
The remnant low-pressure area is seen locking itself into place over Gujarat and adjoining Mumbai-Konkan coasts over the next four days.
Now, this is what is expected to stir up the monsoon over the northern parts of the west coast during next week.
It will also gradually cause the offshore trough to deepen and bring the southern parts of the west coast (coastal Karnataka and Kerala) under a fresh rain spell.
Meanwhile, model predictions also indicate that the low-pressure area over Gujarat and Konkan will gradually merge into a trough growing inland from the Bay of Bengal.
This will bring the whole of peninsular India under monsoon conditions next week. Central India too is expected to be brought under rain cover alongside.
By June 20, a crucially important low-pressure area is expected to form over the Odisha-Gangetic West Bengal coast.
With this, a gateway will have been opened for southeasterly monsoon winds to rush into Bihar and adjoining Uttar Pradesh.
The strength of the Bay ‘low’ and its longevity will in turn decide the extent to which the monsoon can spread out into the farming heartland of north and northwest India.
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