Pune

In the high-stakes political arena of Maharashtra, where every move is strategic and every alliance is scrutinised, the upcoming Lok Sabha elections promise to be a fierce battle. Despite its best efforts to politically decimate Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, the BJP finds itself facing a formidable challenge in Maharashtra.

With 48 Lok Sabha seats, second only to Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra is crucial for the BJP’s electoral ambitions. In the 2019 elections, the BJP’s alliance with Shiv Sena secured 41 seats (BJP 23 and Sena 18), providing a strong foundation for PM Narendra Modi’s second term. Congress could win only one seat, and the Nationalist Congress Party four seats. However, with the recent political upheavals, the landscape has shifted.

The decision of Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar to defect from Shiv Sena and the NCP, respectively, to support the BJP, has introduced a new dynamic into the political landscape. While these shifts were perceived as significant setbacks for their former parties and leaders, internal and external surveys have indicated a more evenly contested election in Maharashtra, tempering the BJP’s expectations of a straightforward victory.

Shift in Voter Base

Political analysts suggest that in Maharashtra, the narrative is not about PM Modi versus Rahul Gandhi; it is about BJP, led by Devendra Fadnavis, versus the opposition, led by Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray, and the Congress.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP secured 27.84 per cent of the votes, while Shiv Sena received 23.5 per cent, Congress garnered 16.41 per cent, and NCP obtained 15.66 per cent.

Senior political analyst Ashok Chousalkar explains the uncertainty surrounding the potential voter shift from Shiv Sena and NCP to BJP due to Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar’s defections. He emphasises the need to observe the upcoming elections to gauge this shift accurately. Chousalkar suggests that without a Modi wave, BJP faces a balanced fight in Maharashtra.

Why Defection?

The key question on voters’ minds is the reason behind Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar’s decision to switch sides and align with the BJP. Their defection not only saw them leave their respective parties but also resulted in taking away the party and its symbols, along with elected representatives in both the State Assembly and Lok Sabha, leaving Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in a vulnerable position.

According to BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis, former State Chief Minister and Deputy in Eknath Shinde’s cabinet, Shinde and Ajit Pawar joined forces with the BJP to endorse PM Modi’s development vision. Shinde and Pawar have consistently echoed this rationale.

Public Perception

The prevailing public perception is that the BJP retaliated against Uddhav Thackeray for breaking the alliance after the 2019 assembly elections and forming a coalition with the Congress and NCP to become CM. Similarly, Ajit Pawar and his supporters are believed to have joined the BJP camp to evade enforcement directorate action.

“Despite the BJP’s attempts to diminish Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar’s influence in State politics, both leaders have remained steadfast. Along with the Congress, they present a formidable challenge to the BJP in Maharashtra. The upcoming polls are not a simple task for the BJP. The resentment towards the BJP for splitting Thackeray and Pawar’s parties is likely to be reflected in the voting patterns,” says Vasant Bhosale, a scribe and political analyst with three decades of experience in following State politics.

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