The future of the SP and BSP in Uttar Pradesh — and elsewhere — is closely linked to the future of caste-based identity politics in the country.

In Uttar Pradesh, the stronghold of both the parties, the SP and BSP contested as an alliance, the Mahagathbandhan. While the BSP won 10 seats with 19.26 per cent votes, the SP got five seats with 17.96 per cent of the total votes. The BSP and SP had contested 38 and 37 seats respectively. The BJP remained the favourite party in majority of the Dalit-OBC populated seats, giving a clear warning signal to both the parties.

In 2014, the SP had contested 78 seats, of which it won five. The BSP had contested all the 80 seats and won none.

bl25MayBSPcol
 
bl25MaySPcol

The fact that the SP got fewer seats and a lesser percentage of votes than the BSP is creating problems in the alliance. The perception is the BSP failed to transfer its votes to the SP, while the latter did its bit to ensure Muslim votes went to the BSP, particularly in western UP.

Both the parties may also face a leadership crisis sooner or later. It was Akhilesh Yadav who pushed the SP into an alliance with its bête noire. His father Mulayam Singh Yadav and uncle Shivpal Yadav were against it, and the latter had formed his own party, denting the SP’s prospects in various constituencies.

The BSP and SP may now hold wider consultations within about continuing with the alliance. How they emerge from this debacle will depend on how effectively they counter the BJP’s emergence as an all-encompassing Hindutva party — of Dalits, OBCS and upper caste groups.

comment COMMENT NOW