The new IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF) is claimed to be the first hourly-updating commercial weather system that can predict something as small as a thunderstorm, virtually anywhere on the planet.

Compared to existing models, IBM GRAF can provide a nearly 200 per cent improvement in forecasting resolution for much of the globe (12-3 km), says Himanshu Goyal, India Business Leader, The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

HOURLY UPDATES READY

GRAF is expected to be available later in 2019, and it is too premature to disclose pricing and other details, Goyal told BusinessLine .

IBM GRAF will provide a three-km-resolution that updates hourly, delivering reliable predictions for the day ahead, leading to faster, better informed decisions in the face of severe weather.

"Weather and water are linked. As the planet warms, we see an increase in severe storms and conditions such as floods and drought," Goyal said.

This not only leads to more natural disasters that require massive relief efforts in the affected areas, but also reduces our planet’s capacity to provide clean water on a sustainable basis.

Right now, two billion people around the globe are threatened by freshwater scarcity. By 2025, two-thirds of the world’s population could be living in water-stressed areas.

As the planet warms, we see an increase in natural disasters and extreme severe weather, flood and drought, the planet’s capacity to sustain clean, fresh water will be diminished. "It comes down to this: Climate change = water loss," Goyal said.

NEW INITIATIVE LAUNCHED

Kicking off on World Environment Day today, IBM and The Weather Channel, part of IBM, will launch Forecast: Change, an initiative to help combat freshwater scarcity.

IBM is focusing its technology leadership to highlight the issue of water scarcity facing the planet and help take action to support clean water for all.

Most recently, The Weather Company’s forecast on India’s latest cyclone Fani was broadcast and well-received across various industries such as agriculture, transportation, renewables and banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) as well as various government and private disaster-management agencies.

These reports helped track and forecast the cyclone’s formation, progression, landfall, location, intensity and post-landfall impacts.

Five-day, two-day and one-day forecasts for the storm were generated by combining in-house models, input from a team of meteorologists and data from other forecast models, including Global Forecast System (GFS), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency and more.

These reports were shared with various disaster management agencies (government and private) and published on social media channels.

BUSINESS OF FORECASTING

On the business of weather forecasting, Goyal said the weather is arguably the most important external swing factor in business performance.

At the same time, reporting of extreme weather events — droughts, wildfires, heavy rainfall, floods — was becoming more common. As such, the world needed better, more accurate, finely-tuned weather forecasts.

Weather-based decision making was becoming critical to many industries. Businesses today were seeing the benefits and value of weather insights:

· Utility companies can better position repair crews to get power back faster after a storm

· Airlines can more effectively route around turbulence

· Farmers can better anticipate and prepare for dramatic shifts in weather

· Insurers can predict surges in weather-related claims

· Retailers can stock their shelves more efficiently

Weather impacts every sector of the economy. Weather affects every inhabitant on earth, every day as well as every business that serves them.

EXECUTIVE VIEWPOINT

It impacts everything from energy prices to media consumption, aviation safety to food costs, retail sales to insurance claims and so much more. Yet, most businesses don’t have a strategy around weather.

In a recent study, the IBM Institute for Business Value surveyed 1,000 C-level executives about how weather impacts their organisations and the results spoke for themselves:

• 100 per cent of those interviewed believe that weather impacts at least one cost and one revenue metric in their organisation

• 99 per cent believe improved weather insights reduce annual operating costs

• And 93 per cent believe improved weather insights can positively impact annual revenue growth.

A vast majority of executives surveyed say better weather-related insights could enable their organisations to realise revenue growth through better use of weather data.

"At the same time, an astonishing 100 per cent of respondents say an improved use of weather data could reduce annual legal, insurance and risk mitigation costs."

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