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New Delhi, December 28 The next 40 days are going to be crucial as India may see a surge in Covid-19 cases in January, official sources said, citing the pattern of previous outbreaks.
Opening up in China, international travel picking up and the previous outbreak patterns are being seen as the reason for Union Health Ministry officials anticipating a surge in Covid cases next month. Incidentally, severity of the infection is expected to be “less” and “even if there is wave death and hospitalisation is expected to be low, they said.
“Previously, it has been noticed that a new Covid wave hits India around 30-35 days after it hits East Asia. Typically, it has been China, parts of Asia, Europe, the USA and then India. At least two-to-three previous waves of Covid have followed the pattern. So, the next 40 days could lead to some surge in infections,” the official said.
Those aware said, the NIV – Pune has already isolated the BF.7 strain of the Omicron variant and is carrying out vaccine efficacy studies. Over the next 8 – 10 days, a detailed report will be shared with the Ministry too.
Reports suggest that the BF.7 strain was found in some samples in India since July. So far, some four-odd people have been detected with the strain that has caused a fresh spurt of infections in China. The strain is considered to be a highly transmissible one where one infected person can further infect 16.
“So far India has witnessed 220 virus variants including recombinant one; and just because the BF.7 strain has not caused a surge earlier, we can’t expect a similar pattern to continue. Behavioural patterns change over time,” the official said.
International arrivals
Meanwhile, the Ministry is likely to make mandatory, from next week, negative RT-PCR reports for passengers arriving from China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Thailand.
Filling up of ‘air-suvidha’ forms and 72-hour prior RT-PCR testing could be mandatory for arrivals from these countries.
Some 39-odd international passengers have been found positive for Covid out of the 6,000-odd tests being carried out over the last two days.
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