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India Met Department (IMD) has located a cyclonic circulation over South-East Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep, that would later set up an 'intense low-pressure area' over the region.
It maintained the watch for the 'low' to materialise as early as tomorrow, before it concentrates into a depression as it moves north-westwards into the outer seas for the next one-two days.
THIRD IN ARABIAN SEA
The depression is forecast to undergo further intensification into a deep depression, and ultimately a cyclone, the third this year after 'Mekunu' and 'Sagar' during the South-West monsoon.
The IMD told that the cyclone would move towards the Oman coast, as is wont with cyclones forming ahead of a monsoon, though there are other models which contest this track.
A monsoon-friendly east-west shear zone of wind turbulence with an embedded cyclonic circulation lies over the South-West Bay of of Bengal, off the adjoining Sri Lanka off Tamil Nadu coast.
Wind speeds may increase over the South-East and central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area becoming squally and reaching 40- to 50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr from Saturday.
They will pick up further speed later, the IMD said. Along with this, the sea condition would become 'rough' to 'very rough' (wave heights ranging between eight ft to 20 ft).
FISHERMEN WARNED
Fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea areas of South-East and Central Arabian Sea from Saturday. Those out at deep sea are advised to return to coast before Saturday.
The IMD has also taken note of a circulation over South-West Bay of Bengal where it sees a low-pressure area evolving by Monday.
Combining with the brewing cyclone across the peninsula, it would help strengthen the easterly flows to herald the North-East monsoon ahead of its usual timeline this year.
Meanwhile, the IMD has alluded to the rapid movement of western disturbances across the North Arabian Sea and North-West India over the next four to five days.
One such has just moved in from West Pakistan and lies over Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood this morning.
A fresh western disturbance is awaiting its turn to move in, as it lies parked over North-East Afghanistan and neighbourhood.
COULD ALTER TRACK
A third one is likely to affect to follow and ultimately the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of of North-West India from Monday.
The back to back movement of these systems could affect the track of the incoming Arabian Sea cyclone from the South, according to some weather models.
Additionally, the 'low' forecast over the South-West Bay and its likely intensification would be enough to anchor the westerly monsoon flows and influence the track of the cyclone.
These models are in turn suggesting a more northerly to north-easterly track in tandem with the western disturbances, which move to the East across the North Arabian Sea.
This could take the cyclone towards the Makran or the Karachi coast of Pakistan or the North-West coast of Gujarat and adjoining South-West Pakistan.
Wind field maps show that the wind regime over the South Peninsula has turned decidedly easterly, likely setting the stage for the arrival of the North-East monsoon.
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