When Scotland Yard came knocking on the doors of liquor baron Vijay Mallya , he was busy tweeting about F1 racing which goes to show that he was not surprised by the turn of events.

A few hours later, Mallya was let off on bail, but this is perhaps the first step towards an eventual extradition to India and a major diplomatic and political victory for the Narendra Modi government. Never has any Indian citizen who has fled to the UK, ever been arrested in that country, including former IPL Commissioner Lalit Modi, therefore, this could set a precedent.

However, legal experts say that it could take up to nearly two years before Mallya can be extradited to India.

This is also the second time Mallya has been arrested. Earlier, he was arrested at the Bengaluru airport for violating the Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA). He was arrested on his way back from Kolkata on June 5, 1985. He was all of 30 at that time. Mallya spent an entire night at the Police Commissioner’s office before the lawyers bailed him out the next day.

According to Ramesh Vaidyanathan, Managing Partner, Advaya Legal, the arrest is the first step of the many steps that the Indian government needs to take. “The government acted very amateurishly in April 2016 when they sent a request to the UK authorities based on civil charges which was turned down,” said Vaidyanathan.

The failure of Kingfisher Airlines to pay back loans is a civil case and so is the personal guarantee by Mallya and are not an extraditable offence. But the 1,000-page CBI chargesheet in the 2009 case with respect to IDBI Bank can be considered a criminal offence as Mallya has been charged with money laundering and fraud and these are extraditable offences and are punishable both under Indian law and the UK law. However, this alone does not assure the Indian Government of Mallya’s extradition.

Even though Mallya has been let off on bail as it is a bailable offence, he was arrested on the basis of an extradition request made by the Indian authorities to the UK Secretary of State who certified the request and the magistrate found a prima facie case for his arrest.

The next step will be when the proceedings start at the district court and if the judge finds that there is a case for extradition, he will be referred to the Secretary of State. However, Mallya will have multiple opportunities to appeal. He can seek his release if he is able to prove that he will not get a fair trial or that there is a human rights’ violation, or a case of political vendetta or if he is able to convince the court that there is a possibility of him being executed if he is brought back to India.

“Everything depends on the quality of FIR filed in the IDBI case on which basis the Indian Government filed an appeal with the UK government. But the UK courts will test the offence independently,” Vaidyanathan pointed out.

Mallya will also have the opportunity of appealing to the High Court and then to the Supreme Court, if necessary.

Soon after he was let off on bail, Mallya started tweeting again claiming that he had taken a lunch break. But he knows more than anyone else that he cannot flee again to escape the long-drawn court battle that will start soon.

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