BJP-Sena: the changing dynamics

The BJP’s victory momentum will further strengthen its expansionist politics in Maharashtra at the expense of its former ally, the Shiv Sena.

While BJP leaders are confident the party will secure a simple majority in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, the exit poll predictions are more varied.

Barring the exception of Today’s Chanakya-News 24 poll, which gave it 151 seats in Maharashtra, most other exit polls indicated that the BJP will be the single largest party lacking simple majority in the State Assembly.

However, most senior leaders still insist that they will not need the Sena’s support to form government.

“The question (of Sena’s support) does not arise. We are getting absolute majority in the State,” said a senior leader.

At the same time, this leader was at pains to insist that it was not the BJP that broke the alliance with the Sena.

Moreover, the BJP has so far not rubbed off any vestige of its alliance with the Sena.

It continues to support the Sena in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) and refuses to even discuss the continued presence of Shiv Sena MP Anant Geete as Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises Minister in the Cabinet.

The BMC is India’s richest municipal corporation and the Sena, with its 75 corporators, needs the support of the BJP’s 31 members along with the Republican Party of India (RPI) to wield a majority in the 227-member body.

So far, the BJP has said nothing about withdrawing support to the Sena in the BMC. Till October 19, when the Assembly election results come out, this situation is not expected to change.

The BJP will, naturally, snap all ties with the Sena should it secure a majority in the Assembly. But if the results do not get the BJP the numbers it requires to form government, its support to the Sena in the BMC becomes a crucial leverage point.

Unlike previously, when the BJP was pushed around by the Sena, a reversal of roles is expected.

“We will squeeze the Sena in Maharashtra. Retaining control of the BMC is like oxygen for the Sena. If we pull out, they will be left with nothing,” said a BJP leader.

In other words, if at all the BJP requires numbers to form government in Maharashtra, it will bargain from a position of strength. The momentum of victory is with the BJP and the party intends to maintain it to edge the Sena out in Maharashtra. In the contest for the same political space, BJP leaders believe the numbers favour them this time round.

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