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Bookies predict clean sweep for BJP in Mumbai municipality, Gujarat state elections

PALAK SHAH | Updated on: May 27, 2022
BJP, always battle ready

BJP, always battle ready | Photo Credit: B. Velankanni Raj

Trends in the Satta Bazar suggests the anti-incumbency factor may tilt in favour of BJP in the BMC polls

Trends in the Satta Bazar, the illegal betting market for elections in India, suggests that the anti-incumbency factor may tilt in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and hurt the ruling Shiv Sena (SS) in the Mumbai municipality (BMC) polls. The BMC elections are important for political parties since it has a budget of around ₹50,000 crore and cash reserves of over ₹80,000 crore.

In a rare move, the bookies have opened rates for Gujarat state elections, which is nearly six months away. There too, the BJP is the hot favourite to win with a comfortable majority, sources in the betting market said.

The highlight of the Gujarat elections will be Patidar community leader Hardik Patel fighting on a BJP ticket instead of Congress, the bookies said. Earlier this month, Patel quit the Congress and if the grapevine is to be believed, he may join the BJP in the next few weeks. Patel could influence 20-25 seats in the state where Patel community votes dominate. For Gujarat, the trends are early and the rates may fluctuate depending on the rallies by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, the bookies say.

Odds of Mumbai elections

BMC elections will see four main political parties in Mumbai, including the BJP, Shiv Sena (SS), Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, NCP and Congress fighting over 237 seats, ten more than 2017 polls. The BJP is expected to achieve a comfortable victory over at least 120 seats, and the tally is expected to go to 130 seats as per the trends. Bookies are ready to pay ₹1 over and above every ₹1 bet on the BJP winning 120 seats in the BMC polls. For betting on BJP’s win over 100 seats, the bookies will pay 0.25 paise over every Rupee. For 110 seats the odds are 55 paise over a Rupee. 

Lower payout ratio on the number of seats suggests that bookies are confident of the political party confortable winning that many seats

The Uddhav Thackrey-led SS is expected to win between 10 to 30 seats, for which, the odds range from 10 paise to 62 paise over a Rupee. But if the SS wins 40 seats, the bookies are willing to pay ₹2.5 over and above every Rupee. Bookies are less confident of SS winning 40 seats. Mumbai was among the worst affected cities during the second wave of Covid and the current elections would put the SS to test. 

Bookies believe that Raj Thackeray-led MNS could manage to win 5 to 15 seats, for which, they are willing to pay 22 paise to 85 paise over a Rupee. Since the anti-incumbency factor is against Uddhav Thackrey, Raj Thackrey is expected to make inroads into the Maharashtrian votebank this time. For nearly 10 years now, Raj has been neglected by Maharashtra votes. Bookies say that some of the SS votes going for the BJP would now go to the MNS. Bookies are not giving any rates for Congress and Sharad Pawar-led NCP yet.

Odds in Gujarat

There is a strong belief that the Aam Aadmi Party will perform the worst in Gujarat. The state has 182 seats and the BJP is expected to comfortably win between 100 to 130 seats, for which, the odds are set between 10 paise to 85 paise over a Rupee. For the Congress, winning 10 to 30 seats the odds are set between 10 paise to 85 paise over a Rupee. Modi and Shah will kick off Gujarat election rally with their visit to their state some time next week. 

BMC - total no of seats 237.

Last time BJP won 85 and SS 91

BJP  seats        odds over and above every Rupee bet 

100              0.25 

110              0.55

120              1.00

130              1.75

SS 

10               0.10

20               0.30

30               0.62

40               2.50

MNS

5                0.22

10               0.37

15               0.85

20               1.15

Gujarat Odds 

BJP Seats                Odds over and Above every Rs

100                      0.10

110                      0.35 

120                      0.52 

130                      0.85

140                      1.40

Congress

10                      0.10p

20                      0.35

30                       0.85

40                      1.80

 

Published on May 27, 2022
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