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The well-marked low-pressure area over South-West Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Tamil Nadu coast has retained its status a day after the India Met Department (IMD) put it under watch for intensification as a depression.
Latest IMD forecasts say nothing of any further prospects for intensification.
Favourable environs
The global models located the system (tagged 92B) to 309 km south-south-east of Chennai with satellite pictures showing persistent deep convection around its core.
It was in a favourable environment for future development with excellent ‘window effect’ on top and high sea-surface temperatures (28- to 30 Deg Celsius) which made up for the moderate wind shear values of up to 37 km/hr.
But the models suspected that proximity to the Tamil Nadu coast may have limited the supply of moisture from sea-based convection needed for further intensification.
They are now of the view that the well-marked ‘low’ may continue to track across the South Peninsula and emerge into the Arabian Sea without further intensification.
Longer shelf-life
However, low’s and well-marked low’s are slow-moving systems with longer shelf-life as they travel along their chosen track - in this instance, from the Tamil Nadu coast to the Kerala coast.
The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry over the next two days.
Isolated heavy falls have also been forecast over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka.
Specifically on Thursday, heavy to very heavy rain has been forecast at isolated places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry while it will be heavy at isolated places over Kerala.
Global models are also watching two other systems in the North-West Pacific - a tropical depression to the south-east of Philippines and tropical storm Man-Yi, which is however forecast to move away to the north-north-east.
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