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A day ahead of its anticipated but earlier-than-schedule arrival over Delhi, the monsoon has run into a roadblock from dry westerlies associated with an approaching western disturbance from the opposite direction and preparing to cross in from the international border to the North-West India.
This will slow down the progress of the monsoon over the North-West India (Delhi, parts of Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh as well as Gujarat in the West). The normal date of onset over Delhi is around June 30, which is at least fortnight away.
South-easterly winds needed
The monsoon winds over North-West and adjoining North-India should be south-easterlies blowing along a trough from the Bay of Bengal and extending into West Rajasthan across the Indo-Gangetic plains. In their place, dry westerlies are expected to prevail at least until June 24, the IMD projects.
The rain-driving low-pressure area is now located over South Jharkhand and is expected to head to East Uttar Pradesh across South-West Bihar. A trough runs from West Rajasthan to North-East Bay while the one linking the Bay with the Arabian Sea across Central India has weakened.
The trough linking West Rajasthan to the Bay normally serves as the crucial monsoon trough that spreads rains over Central and North-West India. The offshore trough along the West Coast does it for the coastal areas over the South Peninsula right from Gujarat to the Kerala coast.
Truncated offshore trough
On Monday, the offshore trough manifested in a truncated form from South Maharashtra coast to North Kerala coast but still presided over a very wet session in that region. Heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls lashed Konkan and Goa during the 24 hours ending on Monday morning.
It was heavy to very heavy over Telangana, Kerala and heavy over Marathawada, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Heavy to very heavy rain was also reported from Odisha and East Uttar Pradesh while it was heavy over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Assam and Meghalaya as the 'low' buzzed in their vicinity.
The current configuration of weather features over East India and along the West Coast will mean fairly widespread to widespread rain, thunderstorms and lightning over most parts of East, Central and North-East India during the next 4-5 days while it would be relatively dry over North-West.
Heavy rain for East India
Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over the North-East during the next four days and isolated extremely heavy falls over Bihar on Tuesday. Widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls, thunderstorms, lightning is forecast over Konkan, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala. Isolated extremely heavy falls may return to Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka on Tuesday.
As for most parts of North-West India, scattered to fairly widespread rain, thunderstorms and lightning is the outlook over next three days and a decrease in rainfall thereafter except over East Uttar Pradesh where the remnant of the 'low' will help sustain the fairly widespread rainfall activity.
Dangerous thunderstorms warned
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall may lash East Uttar Pradesh for next five days while it would be extremely heavy over East Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday.
The dry westerlies will combine with available sparse moisture to trigger moderate to severe thunderstorms, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and strong gusts over Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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