Of incumbents, challengers and a hotter sun

An acid test awaits the Congress as well as stalwarts Mamata Banerjee, J Jayalalithaa, M Karunanidhi and the Left parties as Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry gear up for the April-May Assembly elections.

The upcoming polls are a do-or-die battle for the West Bengal and Tamil Nadu Chief Ministers, and their principal opposition parties and players. The Congress will be fighting for lost prestige, as well as bracing for further humiliation if its chief ministers succumb to anti-incumbency in Kerala and Assam.

Although it has much less at stake, the BJP that rules the Centre has muscled its way into the five contests. It has a realistic chance to form a government only in the north-eastern State of Assam. BJP president Amit Shah is air-hopping to campaign across the poll-bound states where his party has never been in power on its own. Cabinet ministers and Prime Minister Narendra Modi too are busy campaigning.

In the national context, the BJP’s anxiety to make inroads into these hitherto unchartered territories can’t be explained only by a natural desire to grow. The party would like to see to it that the Congress is further humiliated by the loss of Assam and Kerala, while it tries to make its presence count in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. The party also hopes to avenge the defeats in Delhi and Bihar, where the Congress rode piggyback on the popularity of Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad to decimate it. But most importantly, BJP President Amit Shah will be keen to prove that despite the latter defeats he can still build on the party’s successes in the Lok Sabha elections.

Accordingly, in the only State where it stands a reasonable chance – Assam – the BJP has got down to crafting its success with quintessential zeal. The party had won seven Lok Sabha seats here and secured a staggering 30.80 per cent of the vote share. It was ahead in as many as 69 Assembly seats if the Lok Sabha numbers are to be counted.

The party has since snatched the Congress’ famed strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma, pressing his formidable skills into service against the septuagenarian Tarun Gogoi, who is looking to defend his third consecutive term in office. It has also aligned with the Asom Gana Parishad and the Bodoland People’s Front.

But even while an opinion poll conducted by ABP News-Nielsen gives the BJP alliance 78 seats, predicting a majority in the 126-member Assembly, field experience suggests it is a neck-and-neck contest. Several BJP insiders calculate the BJP’s own tally to be between 45-50 seats while the AGP is not expected to cross the single-digit mark in the 24 seats it is contesting. Even if the Bodos win between 7 and 10 seats, the BJP is still barely touching the half-way mark.

In neighbouring West Bengal, the contest is between Mamata Banerjee and the Left, which has an electoral “understanding” with the Congress. An ABP News-Nielsen survey predicts a staggering victory for Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, with 178 seats in the 295-member Assembly. The same poll shows the Congress-Left alliance winning 110 seats, and the BJP one.

Even if the opinion polls are speculation, it clear that the BJP’s ambition to build on its strength in West Bengal has faded in the months since the general elections. The party had hoped to cash in on its two seats, and a surprisingly robust vote share of 17.02 per cent.

However, the reality was evident in the municipal elections last year when the Trinamool asserted itself by winning as many as 71 of the 92 civic bodies in West Bengal. It cornered as many as 114 of the 144 wards in Kolkata. The Left gained ground too, winning the prestigious Siliguri Municipal Corporation. The BJP was able to win just seven wards with an estimated vote share of 15 per cent. In the upcoming polls, the projected improvement in the Congress-Left vote share and Mamata Banerjee’s continued domination is expected to shrink the BJP further.

In Tamil Nadu, it has become a four-cornered contest with Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa pitted against DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi, who is busy striking a hard bargain with alliance partner Congress. Meanwhile, the BJP, which was hoping to tie up with DMDK leader Vijayakant, has been left to fight a lonely battle. Vijaykant has aligned with the People’s Welfare Front, an alliance of the Left parties and Vaiko’s MDMK, creating another layer to this election. While pollsters predict a victory for the AIADMK, the last word on Tamil Nadu is far from over with the Congress-DMK alliance not having been firmed up yet.

In Kerala, CPI(M)’s Pinarayi Vijayan and VS Achutanandan are looking to demolish the scam-tainted and faction-ridden government of Oommen Chandy. The first concrete indication of the Congress’ decline in Kerala came in the local body polls last year in which the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front won more than half the 1,199 bodies. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), which had bagged 70 per cent of the local bodies in 2010, lost seats primarily to the CPI(M), but also to the BJP. The LDF won 550 of the 941 gram panchayats and was ahead in 90 of the 152 block panchayats. The BJP improved its tally – winning 933 seats in village panchayats and three in district panchayats. Its share in corporations went up to 51 seats.

With new alliances in place, the BJP is looking to break fresh ground in this southern State which has among the oldest RSS organisations in the country.

In the national context, the Assembly elections will not alter much except that the Congress will be brought down a few more notches. The BJP only has to worry about not being able to retain its LS numbers while regional divas, especially Banerjee, has only to gain in prestige.

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