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Rain surplus for the period October 1-24 for the country as a whole has risen further to 47 per cent with the South Peninsula itself deriving 63 per cent more rainfall above the long-period average from a concurrent North-East monsoon. Indications are that the precipitation amounts can only go up at least during the next fortnight (until December 8).
This phase may also witness the initiation of a fresh depression that could likely grow up further in strength, according to model guidance from India Meteorological Department (IMD)-Global Forecast System, Global Ensemble Forecast System, the NCMRWF Unified Model, the National Environmental Prediction Model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Another storm brewing
An extended forecast by the IMD covering this week and the next (November 24-December 8) said that first week ending December 1 will likely see above normal rainfall overall for for the Southern Peninsula and adjoining Central India (including the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep) and below normal for the hills of North-West India and the North-Eastern States.
Also read: Heavy rainfall may lash Tamil Nadu, South AP coasts again
The second week (December 2-8) will see light to moderate scattered/fairly widespread rainfall continuing over the South Peninsula during most days. Isolated heavy falls are forecast over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and Kerala during the second half of the week. Rainfall may be above normal or extreme over the South Peninsula, East and North-East India.
As of Thursday, the IMD had refused to categorise the cyclonic circulation over Sri Lanka and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal as a low-pressure area even though the Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology said a low-pressure area had formed over the South-East of the island nation and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal.. But the IMD said that this has sent out a powerful battery of rain-driving easterly wind regime.
The strong winds have been targeting Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts during the past couple of days and triggered rain over many parts, including Chennai.
Heavy rainfall forecast
The ongoing week ending December 1 will trigger light to moderate scattered/fairly widespread rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal with the second half of the week likely witnessing extension of the rainfall regime into Maharashtra.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy rainfall is forecast over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Friday; isolated heavy to very heavy rain from Saturday to Sunday; and isolated heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema on Friday and Saturday and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema on Sunday and Monday.
Depression may intensify
Isolated heavy rainfall is also very likely over Kerala and Mahe until Wednesday and over Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A low-pressure area is likely to form over South Andaman Sea around Monday. It could concentrate into a depression, intensify further and move to the North/North-East towards Central and adjoining North Bay (and not likely not towards Tamil Nadu/Andhra Pradesh coasts). Model consensus gives a ‘moderate’ probability for this eventuality.
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